USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY soared 41 points to 107.25 as the dollar recovered and the JPY continued to ease after the release of CGPI which

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY soared 41 points to 107.25 as the dollar recovered and the JPY continued to ease after the release of CGPI which missed on an annual basis and met poor expectations on a monthly view. The U.S. currency has weakened this month as Federal Reserve officials said a worldwide economic slowdown may delay U.S. interest-rate increases and weigh on the dollar.

“Even though the dollar fell in reaction to bad news after a strong rally, medium to long-term buying interest around 107-106 is said to be very strong,” said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “While fresh concerns over a global slowdown have emerged, the U.S. is still a step ahead of Japan in terms of its economic recovery.”

The dollar strengthened from a one-month low against the yen on speculation its longest losing streak since July was unwarranted given U.S. economic growth is likely to outpace Japan’s.

The yen fell against all of its 16 major counterparts as U.S. stock futures rallied, damping demand for Japan’s haven assets. The dollar rebounded modestly against the yen and euro on Tuesday following steep falls overnight, although risk aversion amid the fall in global equities and uncertainty on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes put a firm cap on the currency.

The dollar crawled up 0.4 percent to 107.235, but remained in close range of a one-month low of 106.76 hit earlier in the session.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	CGPI (YoY) (Sep)	3.5%	3.6%	3.9%
JPY	CGPI (MoM) (Sep)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
JPY	M2 Money Stock (YoY)	3.0%	2.9%	3.0%
AUD	NAB Bus. Confidence	5		7
AUD	NAB Business Survey	1		4
NZD	RBNZ Offshore Holdings	63.70%		65.00%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, October 15
	CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		1.7%	2.0%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi
	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-35.0K	-37.2K
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
	USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.6%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi