Weekly Forex Commentary March 14, 2021

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Published: Mar 14, 2021, 10:14 UTC

Markets begin the week under new time frames. Day trades run from 2:30 am to 10:00 am EST and nightly trades from 9:30 pm to 2:30 pm EST. We day trade continuously from 9:30 pm to 10 : 00 am. The ECB and all central banks then enter markets from 10:00 am to the Fed at 12:30. The 24 hour trade maintains 4:15 to 4;15 pm as the Fed releases the new day's interest rates.

EUR/USD ranges this week severely diminish due to problems within the EUR universe. EUR/JPY remains light years overbought while EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD maintain oversold conditions. EUR/CAD broke its 5 year average at 1.4955 and trades ranges from 1.4955 to 1.4547 then 1.4427. EUR/GBP is oversold however it trades between 0.8740 to 0.8414 to the 5 and 10 year average. EUR/USD cross pairs will determine EUR fate this week to direction.

GBP/NZD from this week’s close at 1.9374 sits on supports at 1.9330 and 1.9246. Last week vitals from 1.9318 to 1.9188 and the week prior 1.9318 to 1.9176. GBP/AUD from its close at 1.7927 contains resistance at 1.7934 then 1.8134 and last week 1.8130 to 1.7905 then 1.7885 to 1.8130. Both are problem pairs entering into the new week.

Week 7 to massively overbought JPY cross pairs. For the month, NZD/JPY rose 100 pips, barely 200 for AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY, 400 for GBP/JPY and a rare day for 400 pips to CAD/JPY. CAD/JPY beat USD/CAD by 100 pips as USD/CAD traded 300 pips. traditionally, USD/CAD always trades wider ranges than CAD/JPY as CAD/JPY is the follow pair to USD/CAD.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY begin the week deeply overbought while USD/CAD is severely oversold. The strategy this week is long USD/CAD, short CAD/JPY and refrain from trading laggard currencies, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. For problem pair USD/JPY lower must break the 5 year average at 108.98 then 106.43. Above at 109.00’s and 110 is maximum to USD/JPY averages dating to 1999.

While GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF are overbought, GBP/CAD matches EUR/CAD to oversold and GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD as problem pairs. GBP/USD like EUR/USD is hostage to its cross pairs for direction.

AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD both broke below vital points at 0.9737 and 0.9073. With NZD/CAD’s break lower, NZD/USD’s close at 0.7173 sits 53 pips above its vital break at 0.7120. Overbought NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF will assist NZD/USD’s eventual break at 0.7120. Then AUD, GBP and EUR slide further.

AUD/USD big break lower is located at 0.7641. AUD achieves this challenge by breaks lower at 0.7716 and 0.7679.

Gold remain inside 1815 to 1642. DXY 91.43 Vs 92.78 and 89.95 below. The 2 year yield broke above reported 0.1511 to trade 2 points higher to 0.1711. The 10 year yield at its 1.625 close, trades inside its wide ranges from 1.3305 to 1.8448.

Respectfully readers, I work extraordinarily hard consistently over 17 years to write the most accurate levels, entries and targets, to bring the most accurate data and market concepts. Don’t believe my words as all is documented here.

About the Author

Brian Twomeycontributor

Brian's published works include John Wiley 2011 "Inside the Currency Market", Using Z Scores to Trade Foreign Exchange, 2012. Academic Paper: 2015, A case study in carry trade and cross pair allegiance switching, pre and post 2008.