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Anissimov Konstantin
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Greed took over the cryptocurrency market over the past few weeks as Bitcoin enjoyed a two-month-long rally with no major corrections. While prices skyrocketed over 90% since late September, investors grew overwhelmingly bullish about a new all-time high in the near-term future. Subsequently, traders entered overleveraged long positions to gain a piece of the bullish price action.

American investor Jim Rogers once said that “when everybody is thinking the same thing, somebody is not thinking.” For this reason, the other side of the picture should always be examined to have a holistic view and understand potential risks.

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But during the week of October 23rd, it appears that cryptocurrency enthusiasts decided to follow the herd.

Bitcoin kicked off the week trading at a low of $18,437, and while prices consolidated throughout the following 28 hours, investors began to enter a state of FOMO. Market participants seem to have feared to miss the chance for another leg up that will send BTC towards $25,000. As a result, a significant number of buy orders were recorded across multiple cryptocurrency exchanges on November 24th that pushed prices up nearly 6%.

As the flagship cryptocurrency surged to a new yearly high of $19,500 on November 25th, some of the so-called “whales” were selling their holdings. The sudden spike in selling pressure triggered a long squeeze across the board. Consequently, Bitcoin took a 17% nosedive to hit a low of $16,200.

On its way down, on-chain data shows that roughly 200,000 traders betting to the upside were liquidated. Losses accounted for more than $2 billion in long positions. Despite the significant downward price action, Bitcoin partially recovered during the last two days of the week.

Prices rose over 5%, and BTC closed Friday’s trading session, November 27th, at $17,000. Bitcoin holders incurred a weekly loss of 7.74%.

Ethereum Holders Incurred More Than 10% in Weekly Losses

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum also kicked off the week of November 23rd on a good posture. Its price entered Monday’s trading session at a high $574 and quickly continued rising. It seems like the break of an ascending triangle on November 20th was significant enough to allow the upward momentum to spill over the next few days.

As speculation mounted around the Ethereum Foundation reaching the threshold to roll out the most anticipated ETH 2.0 upgrade, market participants bought into the narrative. The spike in demand allowed Ether to surge to a new yearly high of $620. But as prices peaked at this level, the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential indicator presented a sell signal on the 4-hour chart indicating that a pullback was going to occur.

Those who were able to spot the bearish formation in time were lucky since what followed was a 23% correction. Ethereum saw its price plummet from a high of $620 on November 24th all the way down to a low of $480 on November 26th. Despite the significant losses, stablecoins began to flood exchanges as prices were collapsing.

More than 720 million USDT, 230 million DAI, 85 million BUSD, and 317 million USDC were transferred to known exchange wallets. The uptick in stablecoins exchange inflow suggested that sidelined investors were preparing to “buy the dip.” The increase in buy orders helped Ethereum recover some of the losses incurred to close Friday, November 27th, at $517.

Ethereum holders incurred saw their portfolios shrink by 10.13% during the week of November 23rd.

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Further Losses on the Horizon

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum managed to partially recover as the weekly trading session came to an end, multiple technical indicators point to further losses on the horizon.

For instance, the TD Sequential indicator presents sell signals on the weekly charts of both of these cryptocurrencies. The bearish formations developed as green nine candlesticks, suggesting that a one to four weekly candlesticks retracement is underway.

A spike in selling pressure behind BTC and ETH may help validate the bearish formation. Under such circumstances, the pioneer cryptocurrency may see its price drop towards $13,000 and the smart contracts giant to $400. It is worth noting that only a weekly candlestick close above the recent highs will invalidate the bearish outlook and lead to another leg up.

Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO

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