Weekly Waves 15 Feb: EUR/USD, Bitcoin and US30

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD, the Bitcoin crypto currency, and the GBP/USD.

Please keep in mind though that many of the price movements, however, will depend on the geopolitical moves concerning Russia and Ukraine.

EUR/USD Triangle Pattern Prepares for Drop

The EUR/USD was building a triangle pattern in our Elliott Wave analysis from last week before making a final drop to 1.10. What would the decline indicate?

1. A bearish decline (orange arrow) is expected to test the support trend line (blue) of the triangle chart pattern on the weekly time frame.
2. A bullish bounce (green arrow) at the support zone (blue) could confirm a wave D (pink) of a larger ABCDE (pink) pattern.
3. The wave E may not break above the previous top otherwise this pattern is invalid. A break above the resistance (red) line makes the bearish ABCDE pattern less likely.
4. A break below the previous bottom before the wave E is built indicates an immediate downtrend via a wave 3.
5. The wave E should have 3 sub waves in the pattern. A bearish reversal should take price action lower (red arrow).

BTC/USD Ready for ABC Upward

The Bitcoin crypto pair (BTC/USD) is showing signs of a short-term bullish reversal:

1. BTC/USD managed to break above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange).
2. The strong bullish price swing is probably a wave 3 (green) as long as the retracement remains shallow within wave 4 (green).
3. A deep bearish retracement however invalidates the bullish outlook and would change the 123 pattern into an ABC pattern.
4. A bullish break higher confirms the wave 5 (green). The main targets are the Fibonacci levels.
5. Price action could make a bearish pullback via wave B (pink) in a larger ABC (pink) pattern.

US30 Daily Chart Remains “Messy”

The US 30 remains choppy with many price movements up and down:

1. The daily chart uptrend has been slowing down significantly in recent months – although the uptrend did manage to continue at a shallow angle (trend channel blue and orange).
2. The bearish breakout below the channel could be a first indication of a larger bearish retracement. We marked this for the moment as a wave A (pink).
3. A bullish retracement (green arrow) could be a wave B (pink) as long as price action respects and stays below the top.
4. A head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (orange boxes) could kick start the end of the wave B (pink) and the start of the wave C (pink).
5. A re break below the support trend line would confirm the bearish price swing and wave C (pink).

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter