Weekly Waves 21 November: EUR/USD, Bitcoin and Gold

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD weekly chart, the US30 weekly chart, and the Bitcoin weekly chart.

EUR/USD Bearish Pinbar Candlestick Pattern

The EUR/USD is showing a bearish pinbar on the weekly chart, which is a major bearish reversal candlestick pattern:

1. The EUR/USD bearish pinbar is indicating that the bulls are running out of steam. A reversal is now expected after price action has hit the -100% Fibonacci target.
2. The bullish price swing could have completed an ABC (yellow) correction.
3. The ABC (yellow) is probably part of a larger and more complex WXY (pink) correction.
4. A breakout below the weekly candle low should price action lower (red arrow).
5. A bearish decline could confirm an ABC (yellow) within the wave X (pink).

Bitcoin Bearish Breakout Below 78.6% Fib

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has respected most of the Fibonacci retracement levels. Recently price action has broken below the 78.6% Fibonacci:

1. The BTC/USD break below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level indicates a likely further decline towards the 88.6% Fibonacci level.
2. The bearish breakout could either see an immediate continuation (red arrow) if it breaks below the weekly candle low (green line).
3. Or price action could make a bullish retracement first towards the resistance zone (orange lines) before making another bearish swing (red arrows).
4. A bullish bounce (blue arrows) is expected at the 88.6% Fibonacci support level.
5. Price action could either be completing a wave C (yellow) within wave 2 (gray) or a wave W (pink) of a larger WXY (pink) in wave 2 (gray).

US30 Bullish Revival Faces Massive Resistance

US30 made a strong bullish bounce at the 61.8% Fibonacci support:

1. The US30 bullish bounce has now reached a strong resistance zone (orange lines).
2. A bearish bounce at the resistance is expected (red arrow) to test the support and inverted head and shoulders level (green box).
3. A bullish bounce there could confirm a bullish ABC (yellow) within the wave B (pink).
4. A larger bearish reversal (red arrows) is expected at the resistance zone (orange box).
5. A bearish 5 wave pattern (yellow) could emerge and take price action below the support trend line (green).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter