Weekly Waves 8 Mar: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and US30

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD, the Bitcoin crypto currency, and the US30.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is in a free fall after dropping 700 pips from 1.15 to 1.08 in just 4 weeks:

1. The EUR/USD has managed to reach the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement support level at 1.08.
2. The support zone (blue box and green line) could cause the EUR/USD to pauze its downtrend.
3. If price action builds a bear flag pattern (gray lines), then a downtrend continuation is expected. In that case, price action is probably building a wave 3 (pink or gray). A shallow retracement indicates a wave 3 (gray) of wave 3 (pink) but a deeper retrace could indicate a wave 4 (pink) instead.
4. If price action is more bullish (green arrow), then a larger bullish retracement is expected to take place. In that case, a wave D-E (pink) pattern is expected.
5. An immediate break below the support zone could indicate an immediate downtrend.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The Bitcoin crypto pair (BTC/USD) made a huge bullish bounce up but price action was unable to break above the resistance (orange):

1. BTC/USD has probably made a wave B (gray) at the lower high.
2. This wave B (gray) seems to be part of a larger ABC (gray) pattern within a wave B (pink).
3. A deeper bearish retracement could take place if price action stays below the local resistance zone (red lines).
4. But the Fibonacci levels are expecting to be a support zone if price action indeed completed a wave A (pink) impulse.
5. A bullish price swing could test the resistance trend lines (orange). A bearish bounce indicates the potential for an ABCDE triangle (gray).
6. A bullish breakout is part of a wave C (pink) in wave B (red).

US30 Technical Analysis

The US30 is in a downtrend channel after breaking below the support zone (dotted green lines):

1. The US30 weekly chart seems to be building a bearish retracement or reversal after being in a long-term uptrend.
2. The wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (red), however, seems completed and price action is retracing within a potential wave 4 (red).
3. The retracement could go as far as the 23.6% Fibonacci level which could provide a bounce back up.
4. An ABC (pink) pattern could take price action back as low as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
5. The ABC (pink) pattern could be part of a complex wave W (green).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter