XRP Bears Eye Sub-$0.37 on SEC v Ripple Silence and Regulatory Jitters

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.02% to end the day at $0.37794.
• SEC v Ripple silence left XRP trailing the broader crypto market, with XRP more sensitive to regulatory chatter.
• The technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$0.36.

On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.02%. Following a 0.13% loss from Saturday, XRP ended the week down 2.11% to $0.37794. XRP ended the day at sub-$0.38 for the third consecutive session.

After a range-bound morning session, XRP fell to a late afternoon low of $0.37500. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3718, XRP rose to a late high of $0.38055 before easing back. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3816, XRP fell back to end the day at sub-$0.38.

Regulatory Risk Jitters Left XRP Flat for the Session

There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to guide investors on Sunday. The lack of news left investor sentiment toward the current regulatory environment and a likely shift in the regulatory landscape to peg XRP back from more meaningful gains.

Over the weekend, updates from the G20 left XRP flatfooted. On Saturday, the G20 tasked the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Financial Stability Board (FSB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to initiate a global regulatory framework.

The decision to deliver a global crypto regulatory framework over a crypto ban was crypto-positive. However, investors may consider the involvement of the IMF as crypto-negative. At the G20, IMF Managing Director suggested banning crypto should be an option.

While a regulatory framework is on the horizon, XRP international policy counsel Susan Friedman had this to say,

“Europe is clearly outpacing the US by establishing holistic regulatory frameworks for the crypto asset industry. We fully expect Europe to become a natural hub for responsible participants going forward.”

With Europe taking a more crypto-friendly position, the G20 could scupper EU plans to become the hub in the west.

The Day Ahead

Investors should continue monitoring crypto news updates relating to the SEC v Ripple case. Binance and FTX-related news will also draw interest.

However, we expect SEC activity and US lawmaker chatter to remain the key driver near term, barring a ruling from the Courts on the SEC v Ripple case. Regulator and lawmaker responses to the weekend updates from the G20 will garner plenty of interest.

In the afternoon session, Fed chatter will also provide the NASDAQ Composite Index and the broader crypto market direction. After the latest US inflation numbers, hawkish Fed chatter would weigh on the appetite for riskier assets.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.02% to $0.37788. A range-bound start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.37809 before falling to a low of $0.37618.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.3755 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3807. A return to $0.38 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC v Ripple chatter would need to support a breakout.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3834 and resistance at $0.3850. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3889.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3751 into play. However, barring an extended broad-based crypto sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.37. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3723 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3667.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.38492. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

An XRP breakout from R1 ($0.3807) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.3834) and the 50-day EMA ($0.38492). An XRP move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38492) would send a bullish signal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38492) would leave the Major Support Levels in play.