XRP Bears to Target $0.45 on SEC v Ripple Sentiment Shift

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP tumbled by 7.56% to end the day at $0.47998.
• Investor sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case and the Fed left XRP at sub-$0.50.
• The technical indicators send bearish signals, bringing sub-$0.45 into view.

On Wednesday, XRP slid by 7.56%. Following a 1.14% loss on Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.47998. The bearish session left XRP at sub-$0.50 for the first time since May 29.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to a first-hour high of $0.52019 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5546, XRP fell to an early evening low of $0.46141. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4944 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4695 before ending the day at $0.47998.

The Fed, the SEC, and the Hinman Docs Leave XRP Under Pressure

It was a busy Wednesday session, with US economic indicators and the Federal Reserve in focus. Softer US wholesale inflation figures failed to force the Fed into a more dovish position, with the Fed delivering a hawkish Fed pause. The economic and interest rate projections and FOMC press conference sent XRP to sub-$0.47.

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to distract investors, showing disappointment over the Hinman speech-related documents.

Hopes of an SEC settlement continued to fade, with SEC Chair Gary Gensler silent for a second day on the Hinman docs.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Thursday session. US retail sales, jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing, and NY Empire State Manufacturing numbers will draw interest.

However, beyond the US economic calendar, we expect market sensitivity to any scrutiny of the Hinman and SEC v Ripple case-related news. SEC v Binance and SEC-Coinbase (COIN) chatter would also move the dial.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.03% to $0.48012. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.47761 before rising to a high of $0.48382.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4872 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5130 and the Wednesday high of $0.52019. A return to $0.50 would signal an extended breakout session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the crypto news wires must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5460 and resistance at $0.55. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6048.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4542 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4284. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3696.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.49454. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day ($0.49454) and 100-day ($0.50759) EMAs would support a breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.51267) and R1 ($0.5130) to target R2 ($0.5460). However, failure to move through the 200-day ($0.49454) would leave S1 ($0.4542) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.