XRP News Today: Can Ripple Swell 2025 Trigger an XRP Breakout?

XRP will be in the spotlight as pre-event buzz builds on the eve of Ripple Swell 2025. The 2025 event will be a seismic shift from last year, with the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case opening XRP’s door to Main Street utilization. Key speakers could make landmark announcements, potentially triggering XRP’s next breakout.

Ripple Swell could coincide with a flurry of XRP-spot ETF-related activity, given that the US government shutdown entered its 33rd day on Monday, November 3. Analysts expect strong institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs, potentially driving the token to new highs.

Ripple Swell 2025: Will BlackRock Announce an iShares XRP Trust?

As the hype builds around Ripple Swell 2025, the list of keynote speakers underscores the changing crypto landscape since Trump’s election win and the resolution of the Ripple case.

The New York City conference will include speakers from BlackRock (BLK), Nasdaq, BNY Mellon, Citi (C), and even the White House.

BlackRock’s presence sets the stage for a surprise announcement, given the ETF issuer’s silence on plans for an iShares XRP Trust. BlackRock has dominated the crypto-spot ETF space.

The issuer’s flagship crypto ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has seen total net inflows of $64.9 billion since launch. IBIT ranks among the top 30 ETFs by assets despite only launching in January 2024.

Given the US BTC-spot ETF market’s total net inflows of $61.15 billion since launch, IBIT’s presence was instrumental in Bitcoin (BTC) climbing to an October 2025 all-time high of $125,761. By contrast, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has reported total net outflows of $24.68 billion since launch.

Ethereum (ETH) has also benefited from BlackRock’s strong presence. The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has reported total net inflows of $14.2 billion compared to the US ETH-spot ETF market’s total net inflows of $14.4 billion. Robust demand for ETH-spot ETFs drove ETH to an August all-time high of $4,958.

Market experts expect XRP-spot ETFs to see similar demand to BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETFs. Nevertheless, BlackRock’s presence could send a far stronger bullish signal.

SEC Timelines, Shutdown, and the Path to an XRP ETF

A prominent crypto commentator, Marty Party, countered claims of BlackRock planning to sit out an XRP-spot ETF market in August, stating:

“Correction: After several conversations, this is verified as false. […] Both SOL and XRP ETFs are in discussion with BlackRock – timing cannot be confirmed – deadline is October to file.”

Notably, the SEC’s Generic Listing Standards (GLS) for commodity-based shares and the US government shutdown have since shifted timelines. The GLS allows issuers to list crypto and commodity-based ETFs on exchanges without passing through the SEC’s typically 240-day review process.

However, the US government shutdown has delayed the launch of XRP-spot ETFs, whose issuers filed before the GLS approval in September. Notably, the shutdown gives BlackRock a window to launch an XRP-spot ETF under the SEC’s Generic Listing Standards.

NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci also believes BlackRock will enter the XRP-spot ETF market, previously stating:

“I obviously believe BlackRock will file for spot XRP & SOL ETFs.”

Hopes for the eventual launch of an XRP-spot ETF, combined with crypto-friendly legislation, remain tailwinds. An iShares XRP Trust would further cement XRP’s growing status on Main Street.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP gained 0.95% on Sunday, November 2, partially reversing the previous day’s 0.18% loss to close at $2.5288. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which rose 0.37%.

Following October’s 11.84% loss, XRP continued to trade below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a bearish bias. However, certain events could trigger a bearish trend reversal.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.5, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.6506.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.6062.
• Resistance levels: $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Sessions

In the near term, several key events could influence price trends:

• A US Senate vote.
• XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s plans for an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5

• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown continues, delaying the approval of XRP-spot ETFs.
• The US Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies avoid XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP below $2.5, bringing $2.35 into play. If breached, the $2.2 would be the next key support level.

Despite holding the $2.5 handle, the descending channel showed early October’s repeated tests of upper resistance. However, the token failed to break above the upper resistance, leading each rally to a lower price level, a bearish indicator. See the chart below for reference.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Traction

• The US government reopens, and the SEC staff return to work.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and XRP-spot ETFs begin trading.
• Blue-chip companies increase XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street adopts Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

These bullish events could drive the token toward $2.62, opening the door to the retesting of $2.80. A sustained move through $2.80 may enable the bulls to target the $3.0 psychological level, potentially bringing the all-time high of $3.66 into play.

Despite October’s losses, XRP has traded within a narrowing range in early November. See the chart below. The current structure suggests an imminent move, with the US Senate, spot ETFs, and the OCC in focus. A break above the upper band will be key for the token to target new highs.

Outlook: Bullish Longer-Term Outlook Intact

XRP’s near-term trajectory hinges on Capitol Hill and demand for XRP-spot ETF launches.

The token could hit new highs if institutional demand for spot ETFs meets the hype and the Market Structure Bill reaches President Trump’s desk.