XRP News Today: ETF Demand Sparks XRP Rebound

Legislative developments, crypto-spot ETF flows, and Nvidia (NVDA) trigger XRP’s largest breakout since February 6.

Hopes that TradFi and DeFi are ending the stalemate on stablecoin yields boosted demand for XRP and the broader crypto market on Wednesday, February 25.

The US BTC-spot market has seen net inflows through the first four sessions of the week, potentially snapping a five-week losing streak and lifting sentiment. Additionally, demand for XRP-spot ETFs remained robust, contributing to Wednesday’s gains.

Meanwhile, Nvidia forecast Q1 revenue to top consensus, benefiting from the tech sector’s substantial spending on AI.

The midweek rebound supported a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.0.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

Market Structure Bill Spotlights XRP

Optimism that TradFi and DeFi can reach an agreement on stablecoin yields boosted demand for XRP.

a16z Head of Government Affairs Collin McCune remarked on crypto-related legislative developments, saying:

“Great meeting. Today was primarily about the path forward for crypto market structure legislation. AI came up too. Important the US remain the global leader for both technologies.”

The White House set a March 1 deadline for an agreed draft text for the Market Structure Bill, pressuring banking and crypto representatives to find common ground.

In mid-January, Coinbase (COIN) withdrew its support for the US Senate Banking Committee’s draft text for the Market Structure Bill. The Banking Committee postponed its markup vote on the draft text, triggering an XRP meltdown. XRP remains highly sensitive to developments in crypto-related legislation.

For context, XRP soared 14.69% on July 17, 2025, after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. However, events on Capitol Hill sent XRP from a January 6 high of $2.4151 to a February low of $1.1227 before briefly reclaiming $1.49 on February 25.

Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett also shared the latest developments on Capitol Hill, stating:

“1) No breakthrough yet on stablecoin yield negotiations and there may not be a single defining moment, but draft language has been circulating since last week’s meeting, signaling movement behind the scenes. 2) Senate Democrats are meeting today on market structure.”

US Crypto-Spot ETF Market Boosts Demand

This week, optimism that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill revived institutional demand for BTC-spot ETFs, boosting broader crypto market sentiment.

The US BTC-spot ETF market saw $257.7 million in net inflows on February 24, reversing the previous day’s outflows of $203.8 million. US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends have been key to BTC and the broader crypto market’s price action, given Bitcoin’s status as the market barometer.

For context, US BTC-spot ETF issuers have seen net outflows of $7.17 billion since October 7, 2025, leaving BTC down 45.6% from the October 6 all-time high of $125,731 and February 25’s close at $68,396. XRP has plunged 52.2% over the same period, underscoring BTC’s influence on buying interest. The token tumbled despite the US XRP-spot ETF market reporting net inflows of $1.23 billion since launching in November 2025.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Despite Wednesday’s breakout, XRP has fallen 13% in February, affirming a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

However, improving demand for BTC-spot and XRP-spot ETFs, hopes that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reaffirm the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several factors could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A full-blown US-Iran conflict.
• US economic indicators lower expectations of an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

Additionally, traders should monitor Bank of Japan rhetoric and USD/JPY trends, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A more hawkish-than-expected BoJ monetary policy decision in July 2024 sent USD/JPY crashing from 153.889 to 139.576, triggering a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. XRP slid from a July 31, 2024, high of $0.6591 to an August 5, 2024, low of $0.4320, underscoring price sensitivity to BoJ policy decisions.

On February 25, USD/JPY briefly advanced to a high of 156.823 on expectations of a less hawkish BoJ policy stance, fueling yen carry trades into risk assets such as XRP.

However, a hawkish Bank of Japan policy stance, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would signal multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple rate hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger another yen carry trade unwind. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wide neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would declare a tighter range at a later date.

These events would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP rallied 6.27% on February 25, reversing the previous day’s 0.24% loss to close at $1.4335. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which climbed 6.12%.

Despite the breakout session, XRP remained below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions signaled a bearish bias. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA, suggesting a shift in trend. Several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these favorable fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6266.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.0740.
• Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, reclaiming $1.50 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

A sustained move through the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic data and the Fed rate path.
• Crypto-related legislative developments – the stablecoin yield stalemate.
• BoJ rate hike bets and the Bank of Japan’s neutral rate.
• Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Key Support

February’s retreat affirmed the existing bearish trend. A break below the lower trendline would expose the February 6 low of $1.1227. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reaffirm the cautiously bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, a breakout above $1.5 would bring the upper trendline and $2.0 into play. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reinforcing the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Geopolitics, Crypto Legislation, and ETF Flows in Focus

Looking ahead, updates from Capitol Hill on crypto-related legislation will be key for XRP’s price trajectory. The progress of the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for XRP.

However, central bank rhetoric, US economic data, US-Iran talks, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence XRP’s price outlook.

A more dovish Fed and a BoJ neutral rate potentially in the 1%-1.25% range would boost buying interest in XRP. Strong demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly regulatory legislation would also be tailwinds for XRP.

In summary, these events would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.0. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these scenarios may drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.