The US XRP-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to 15 consecutive sessions on Friday, December 5, bolstering demand for XRP. The token snapped a three-day losing streak on Sunday, December 7, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
Crucially, XRP has continued to close above the $2.0 psychological support level after recovering from the November 21 low of $1.8239, indicating a potential floor. With Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision in focus, spot ETF flows, alongside legislative developments on Capitol Hill, will be key for XRP’s bullish short- to medium-term outlook.
Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.
US XRP-Spot ETF Market Flows Near $1 Billion
The US XRP-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $230.73 million in the reporting week ending December 5. The week inflows took total net inflows to $897.35 million since launch. Unlike the US BTC-spot ETF market, where 11 issuers launched simultaneously, only four XRP-spot ETFs have launched to date.
15 consecutive days of net inflows, coming irrespective of market conditions, reflect robust institutional demand. By contrast, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $87.7 million, suggesting that an XRP-BTC decoupling is underway.
While XRPUSD is down 6.81% to $2.0807 in H2 2025. Meanwhile, XRPBTC has gained 9.15% in the same period, despite XRPBTC falling 8.69% in Q4.
More XRP-spot ETF launches and the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill would likely support a further decoupling. While BTC receives the US administration’s attention as a potential national reserve asset, XRP’s real-world utility and a broadening investor base support the bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.
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See all Bitcoin forecastsInvestor Net Widens as OSL Hong Kong Lists XRP
Public-listed and SFC-licensed digital asset platform and exchange OSL HK announced the listing of XRP, stating:
“XRP is now available at OSL HK – secure, compliant access to one of the world’s most established digital assets. Renowned for its speed and efficiency in cross-border transactions, XRP expands OSL HK’s token lineup. Available to Professional Investors via Flash Trade & OTC. Flash Trade: XRP/HKD, XRP/USD, XRP/USDT.”
OSL HK’s announcement coincided with several key developments in the US. Vanguard Group took a sharp U-turn on crypto by allowing brokerage clients to access crypto-spot ETFs.
A more accessible crypto market, combined with crypto-friendly regulations, could boost demand for XRP and the broader market. Notably, Vanguard’s U-turn could push others to follow suit, exposing XRP to a wider Main Street investor audience.
XRP rallied 6.06% on December 2 as investors reacted to Vanguard’s announcement, underscoring the importance of leading asset managers’ presence in the crypto space.
Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Intact
Expectations of a Fed rate cut and the potential for further easing in H1 2026 suggest a bullish week ahead. However, there are several key events that may act as tailwinds for XRP, including:
- Widening investor access to spot ETFs.
- The progress of crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
- December and March Fed rate cut expectations.
In my view, these scenarios support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb toward $2.5.
Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook
While the short- to medium-term outlook is bullish, several events could derail the outlook. These include:
- The Bank of Japan triggers a yen carry trade unwind, hitting XRP and the broader crypto market.
- The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings could dampen demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- US Senate challenges the Market Structure Bill.
- OCC rejects Bitcoin’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
- XRP-spot ETFs report heavy outflows.
These events would likely drag XRP below $2, bringing the November low of $1.82 into play before a longer-term return to $3.
However, in my opinion, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, expectations of crypto-friendly regulations, an expanding investor base, and a dovish Fed will likely support a move toward $3.
In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.
Financial Analysis
Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution
XRP rose 0.68% on Sunday, December 7, reversing the previous day’s 0.22% to close at $2.0456. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which gained 0.85%.
Despite snapping a three-day losing streak, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias. However, fundamentals are shifting from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
- 50-day EMA resistance: $2.2757.
- 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4785.
- Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.
Holding above the $2.0 psychological support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained break above the 50-day EMA would pave the way to the $2.35 resistance level. Crucially, a break above the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise to the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.
Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions
Near-term price drivers include:
- XRP-spot ETF daily flows.
- Blue-chip companies’ positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
- MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
- The Fed and the BoJ’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance.
Bullish Structure: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?
Avoiding a drop below the lower trendline and $2.0 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline. A sustained break above the upper trendline would support the $2.5 medium-term and $3 longer-term (8-12 weeks) price targets.
However, a move below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.
Outlook: $2.0 Key to Short-Term Outlook
XRP will come under increasing scrutiny, with buyer demand at the $2.0 psychological support level pivotal for the near-term outlook. Spot ETF inflows and a dovish Fed decision on December 10 would likely trigger an XRP breakout from the current price range.
Legislative developments will also be key in the coming weeks. Progress on crypto-friendly regulations would boost sentiment toward the demand outlook.
To summarize, robust XRP-spot ETF inflows and a dovish Fed rate cut support a short-term move to $2.35. Progress toward crypto-friendly legislation and wider XRP adoption would align with the medium-term (4-8 weeks) and longer-term (8-12 weeks) $2.5 and $3.0 price targets.
