XRP News Today: Price Tests $2.20 Support as Senate Gridlock Deepens

Government Shutdown Enters Day 18

XRP has plunged 18% in October as the US government shutdown has become the third longest in history. Notably, the longest shutdown in history was during President Trump’s first term in office, lasting 35 days.

The shutdown continues to leave the US Securities and Exchange Commission running on a skeleton staff, delaying crucial SEC reviews and approvals. The delays mean XRP-spot ETF issuers would need to wait for the US Senate to pass a stopgap funding bill before the SEC can green-light seven XRP-spot ETFs awaiting their S-1 approvals.

Crucially, the prolonged government shutdown leaves XRP exposed to heightened price volatility in the absence of sticky institutional money. For context, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen a more modest 6.39% in October, with Ethereum (ETH) down 6.90%. Both have the benefit of institutional money flowing into established spot ETF markets.

The continued Senate impasse could expose XRP to heavier losses before the storm clears. Betting platform Kalshi currently predicts the government shutdown will last 42 days, with a 72% chance of the deadlock extending beyond the 35 days in 2018-2019. More than 40 days would take the shutdown to November 10.

Grayscale Deadline Passes with No Launch in Sight

The US government shutdown leaves XRP-spot ETF issuers in limbo. Grayscale’s XRP ETF final decision deadline of October 18 is set to pass today. There is no clear line of sight on when a stopgap funding bill will receive the necessary 60 votes.

While selling pressure has intensified amid the uncertainty, the US Senate could pass a stopgap funding bill at any time. Given Grayscale’s final decision deadline, the SEC could expedite the approval of all seven XRP-spot ETFs.

Considering previous decisions, it is highly likely that the SEC will approve all seven issuers’ S-1s, with the spot ETFs potentially launching the next day. In January 2024, the agency approved all ten S-1s, ensuring no issuers gained a first-to-market advantage.

Since launching in January 2024, the BTC spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $61.5 billion, sending BTC to an October all-time high of $125,761.

Ripple Headlines Overshadowed by Market Weakness

Traders continue ignoring key announcements, which would typically boost XRP demand and price. The US government shutdown and ongoing delays to spot ETFs have overshadowed two strategic moves on Main Street:

• A custody partnership with South Africa’s Absa Bank, potentially paving the way for the integration of XRPL.
• The $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury, giving Ripple access to the $120 trillion corporate treasury payments market.

This week’s announcements garnered limited investor interest, with XRP exposed to BTC price trends.

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan commented on the GTreasury announcement and the absence of market reaction, stating:

“This will have little or no impact on the reality that XRP price action specifically follows bitcoin price action and generally follows the market as a whole. Hence, XRP price has fallen with Bitcoin’s price falling with the rest of the market in the hours since this announcement. That is not to diminish that the news is positive for Ripple.”

Morgan concluded:

“It might benefit XRP and the XRPL, but no one can reflexively make that assumption without doing a deeper dive into the details of the acquisition.”

XRP’s correlation to BTC could break once there is an XRP-spot ETF market. Different flow dynamics could lead to price divergence – a step toward market maturity. XRP could benefit from its real-world utility and Ripple’s growing presence on Main Street.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2.3?

XRP fell 1.51% on Friday, October 17, following the previous day’s 3.46% loss, closing at $2.2944. A four-day losing streak, mirroring the broader crypto market, sent the token below the $2.2 level before recovering. Friday’s loss also led to XRP dropping further back from the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6225 and the 50-day EMA at $2.7716.
• Resistance levels: $2.4, $2.7, and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key scenarios could dictate near-term price trends:

• US-China trade talks.
• The US government shutdown.
• XRP-spot ETF news (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.2

• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US Senate deadline continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• The US Senate opposes crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains dominance in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP back toward $2.2. A drop below $2.2 would bring the $2.0 psychological support level into play.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3

• The US and China reach a trade deal.
• US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC green-lights XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies target the use of XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• Ripple sees increased XRPL integration on Main Street, weakening SWIFT’s market dominance.

These bullish scenarios could drive XRP toward $3.0.

Headwinds and Investor Sentiment

The crypto market remains dependent on the US government reopening. However, XRP’s drop below key levels on Friday, October 17, was brief, suggesting crucial support ahead of an XRP-spot ETF launch.

Market intelligence platform Santiment commented on XRP’s price action, stating:

“XRP’s price has rebounded back a modest +5.3% since its bottom 12 hours ago. A good long-term sign is the amount of mid to large stakeholders continues to grow. There are now an all-time high ~317.5K wallets with at least 10K XRP.”

XRP could reclaim the $3.0 handle if the US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill. Furthermore, the token could target its record high of $3.66 if the Fed cuts rates and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

Final Thoughts

All eyes remain on Capitol Hill, where the next vote could decide whether XRP reclaims $3 or continues its fall toward $2.

Traders should closely monitor Capitol Hill and Fed commentary.