XRP Price Direction and a Return to $0.35 Hinged on the Merge

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP rose by 2.80% to partially reverse a 7.62% slide from Tuesday.
• Updates from the SEC v Ripple case failed to influence. Investor sentiment towards the Merge and Fed monetary policy provided support.
• However, the technical indicators are bearish, with XRP currently sitting below the 100-day EMA, supporting a return to sub-$0.30.

On Wednesday, XRP rose by 2.80%. Partially reversing a 7.62% slide from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.34182.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP slip to an early morning low of $0.33166 before making a move. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3223, XRP struck a late high of $0.34428. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.34428, XRP slipped back to end the day at $0.34182.

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case took a back seat as Fed fear of a more aggressive September rate hike subsided. On Wednesday, US wholesale inflation numbers came in softer, easing fears of intensifying consumer price pressure.

This morning, the markets projected a 76% chance of a 75-basis point rate hike, up from a pre-wholesale inflation 69%.

Later today, US economic indicators will continue to influence, with jobless claims, retail sales, and Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers in focus. However, XRP will likely find direction from the market reaction to Ethereum (ETH) Merge that will take place shortly.

Post-Merge Slow Progress in the SEC v Ripple Case Remains a Headwind

Overnight, defense attorney James Filan shared the latest from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

Filan said,

“An unidentified third party has filed a Motion to Seal Portions of the Ripple Defendant’s Motion for Summary Judgement that reference the names of the third party’s employees.”

The latest letter to Judge Torres follows the defendants’ filing, under seal, their motion for summary judgment. The defendants filed the motion for summary judgment without a Court ruling on the Hinman speech-related docs.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.02% to $0.33832. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.34218 before falling to a low of $0.33258.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.3393 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3468.

A seamless Ethereum Merge would support a bullish session and a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3519. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3645.

Any favorable court decisions from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case would also support a breakout.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3342 in play. Barring another extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.32. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3266 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3140.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.34198. This morning, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were price negative.

A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would give the bears a run at S1 (0.3342) and sub-$0.33 support levels. However, positive updates on the Merge should support an XRP move through the EMAs to target R1 (0.3468) and $0.35.