XRP Price Forecast: A 25% Dip Likely As ‘Active Traders’ Go Underwater

XRP’s (XRP) deeply negative short-term trader returns may look like a contrarian buy signal, but history shows underwater traders can stay underwater for months before the price finally bottoms.

XRP Active Traders Are Sitting on Heavy Losses

XRP’s short-term holders are facing one of their worst drawdowns in years, with the token’s 30-day MVRV ratio showing that the average active trader is down roughly 47%.

The metric tracks the average unrealized profit or loss of coins moved over the past 30 days. A deeply negative reading means recent buyers are holding XRP below their acquisition price, reflecting heavy fear, capitulation risk and weak short-term confidence.

Santiment analysts argued that such extreme MVRV readings often signal undervaluation because average trader returns tend to revert toward 0% over time.

📉 The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom. Historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP. The chart shows… pic.twitter.com/a0s4ObRpQu

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 26, 2026

In theory, that makes XRP attractive for contrarian buyers betting on a relief rally.

But the signal is not a clean bottoming tool.

XRP’s previous cycles show that negative MVRV readings can persist long before price finds a durable floor.

During the 2018–2020 bear market, XRP’s MVRV slipped below zero well before the token bottomed. Price continued falling from around $0.34 to nearly $0.15 while the metric stayed negative.

Clearly, MVRV reflects trader pain, not fresh demand. It can show undervaluation, but it cannot confirm a bottom or force buyers back into the market.

In XRP’s case, the signal looks more defensive than bullish. The token remains near the lower end of its 2026 range, trades below key moving averages, and has yet to break out of its multi-month consolidation.

XRP Triangle Breakdown Points to Sub-$1 Risk

XRP has spent months consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs pressing against higher lows since February. Such patterns often signal indecision, but after a broader downtrend, they can resolve as bearish continuation setups.

XRP is now testing the triangle’s lower boundary near $1.30–$1.35. A decisive breakdown would confirm seller control and open the door to a measured decline toward roughly $0.99, implying a drop of about 25% from current levels.

The target comes from the triangle’s maximum height, projected lower from the breakdown zone. It also aligns with the psychological $1 level, a key support area if bearish momentum accelerates.

Momentum indicators offer little relief. XRP remains below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, while the daily RSI is not deeply oversold, leaving room for another leg lower before buyers step in aggressively.

Macro Conditions Amplify XRP’s Downside

The US rate outlook has turned less supportive for crypto as inflation risks remain elevated.

In April, JPMorgan said that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady through the rest of 2026 before potentially hiking in 2027, a setup that would keep liquidity conditions tight for longer.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that energy shocks can become persistent inflation forces if they feed into wages and expectations, while ING expects the BOJ to continue tightening in 2026 and 2027.

Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda has indicated the need for vigilance over the impact of oil price spikes on the underlying inflation trend, but didn’t hint how that would influence next month’s policy meeting. https://t.co/3zMtp05Qlz

— The Japan Times (@japantimes) May 27, 2026

Rising global bond yields and hawkish central banks typically pressure speculative assets like XRP because investors can earn better risk-adjusted returns in safer instruments.

Crypto usually performs best when liquidity expands. The current environment points in the opposite direction.

It doesn’t mean that long-term holders must not buy the dip, which, in fact, they are doing all across 2026, as shown in Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position metric below. That typically precedes XRP bottoms, actually, but it may take months for such sharp bounces to mature.

So, in my humble opinion, a negative MVRV reading may not lead to an imminent XRP bottom. This warning is particularly for those who are betting short-term on XRP gains, be it spot or via leveraged trades.