XRP Price Forecast: A 35% Downside Setup Builds Amid US–Iran Tensions

XRP (XRP) gave back part of its recent gains on Monday after Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani pushed back on reports that he had reached out to Washington through Omani mediators.

He said Tehran “will not negotiate with the United States,” raising the odds of another crypto market decline in the coming days, which may leave XRP in a vulnerable state.

The Ripple-associated token is flashing a downside continuation setup as geopolitics turns risk assets jumpy again.

XRP Inflows to Exchanges Hit ~$650 Million Amid US–Iran Tensions

XRP is reflecting the risk-off shift through exchange flows.

Binance has taken in more than 472 million XRP over the past week, worth roughly $652 million, marking the largest inflow stretch in February, data from CryptoQuant shows.

These deposits don’t prove investors are selling, but they do increase sell-ready supply.

Tokens moved onto exchanges can be offloaded quickly on spot markets or used for hedging and collateral when volatility spikes. And when inflows arrive in clusters instead of a single headline-driven spike, it often points to broader de-risking behavior.

Rising US–Israel–Iran tensions have lifted uncertainty across markets, prompting traders to prioritize liquidity and keep assets closer to venues where they can react fast.

Bear Pennant Raises 35% Dip Risks

From a technical standpoint, XRP is coiling inside a bear pennant on the daily chart, typically a pause that forms after a sharp drop and resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend.

After dumping hard in early February, XRP began consolidating inside a tight, converging triangle, with lower highs pressing against relatively flat support near $1.30–$1.35.

This compression usually signals that sellers are still controlling the tape, especially with price holding below the 50-day SMA (~$1.63) and well under the 200-day SMA (~$2.26).

If XRP breaks below the pennant’s lower boundary, the standard measured-move projection points toward ~$0.86, implying roughly 35% downside from levels near $1.36.

XRP On-Chain Data Signals Dip Toward $1

Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Bands show XRP drifting back toward its cost-basis zone after rejecting higher deviation levels. If weakness persists, the next key support is the -$0.5σ band near $1, a common mean-reversion area.

That sets a simple path: $1 is the first downside magnet; a confirmed bear-pennant breakdown keeps $0.86 in focus.

The bearish view fades if XRP breaks above pennant resistance and reclaims the 50-day SMA, signaling improving demand.