XRP (XRP) may be preparing for a strong October after confirming a breakout from a classic falling wedge pattern, one that could propel its price higher by more than 30%.
Falling Wedge Breakout Hints at 30% XRP Rally
XRP/USD broke above the upper trendline of a months-long falling wedge last week, a bullish reversal structure often preceding sharp upside moves.
Importantly, the token has since returned to retest that same upper trendline, this time flipping it into support near $2.80. Such retests are typically considered breakout confirmations, strengthening the case for a sustained uptrend.
From here, the falling wedge setup points toward a technical target around $3.84, roughly 30% higher than current levels. The target is calculated by measuring the maximum depth of the wedge and projecting it from the breakout point.
Momentum indicators also favor the bullish case. The relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded from neutral levels near 50, suggesting renewed buying interest.
XRP is also reclaiming its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) as support, while the 200-day EMA at $2.61 continues to underpin the long-term uptrend.
Ripple Price Forecast
Every new Ripple analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Ripple forecastsOctober Brings High-Stakes Catalysts
October could also prove decisive for XRP beyond charts. Between Oct. 18–25, the SEC is set to rule on six spot XRP ETF applications, including those from Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary, WisdomTree, and CoinShares.
October has arrived. Here is what we are looking forward to this month $XRP community! Insane growth ahead for the entire ecosystem, adoption, etc. pic.twitter.com/pU8dtosZ9Y
— Zach Humphries (@Z_Humphries) October 1, 2025
Adding to the stakes, Ripple’s application for a national bank charter is also expected to receive a decision in the same window. If approved, Ripple would become a federally supervised banking institution, opening the door to regulated payments, custody, and services well beyond crypto.
A US government shutdown is also weighing on the US dollar, which, in turn, is boosting risk appetite among investors.
These overlapping events could magnify volatility around the XRP price, potentially accelerating the wedge’s bullish setup if outcomes lean positive.