XRP Price Forecast: XRP Toys With Key Level and Risks a Big Loss

XRP (XRP) is tagging the $1 level for the first time since November 2024 as interest in this altcoin has waned, following news that the U.S. Senate will postpone its vote on the Clarity Act to September.

The odds that the bill will be passed in 2026 plummeted to a yearly low of 14% recently, but have recovered to 22% in the past few days.

However, XRP kept pushing through lower price zones despite the recovery, as this piece of legislation could have a dramatic impact on the project’s growth.

Open Interest (OI) Levels Indicate Increased Short Positioning

Volumes remain quite thin at $1.2 billion, accounting for just 1.9% of the asset’s circulating market cap at the time of writing. However, this figure could rapidly rise if the price breaks below the $1 psychological threshold.

Open interest (OI) seems to have increased compared to the last time that XRP traded at $1. Back in November 2024, OI stood at $1.8 billion, or 32% below today’s mark. This could imply that the market is increasingly positioning for a big move ahead.

In XRP’s case, we believe this could be a bearish move, as a bearish price action setup has emerged as a result of the latest downtrend.

Meanwhile, looking at some on-chain data, there has been an interesting pick-up in daily active addresses since July 21, even though the price has been declining. This could be an indication that whales and users are transferring assets to exchanges, possibly ahead of this key support retest.

The market as a whole, based on X’s chatter and discussion forums, is closely watching how the price action behaves as it hits this relevant $1 threshold. Hence, both OI and DAUs confirm it. Thus, we could expect some increased volatility down the road if the price breaks below this mark.

Finally, according to data from Santiment, in late June, we saw a crossover between the 7-day moving average and the 30-day moving average for social volumes. This implies that chatter about XRP on social media was rapidly decreasing.

This bearish signal has anticipated strong declines in the price of XRP multiple times in the past, and, paired with a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we expect a similar outcome this time — especially as we approach the critical $1 threshold.

RSI Sends Sell Signal as XRP Drops to $1

Looking at the daily chart, if the $1 threshold is crossed, we see a strong downside risk for XRP of around 35% in the near term.

This would be consistent with the overall narrative that is driving crypto prices at the time, which includes a hawkish Federal Reserve, low odds of getting a comprehensive piece of crypto legislation passed in 2026 in this country, and an ongoing capital rotation to other areas of tech like space travel and AI.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has already flashed a sell signal upon dropping below the 40 mark. This indicates that bearish momentum is accelerating, further confirming this thesis.

A spike in daily long liquidations could set this steep decline in motion, as market makers would free up the collateral they hold to cover these positions, which could trigger a significant decline in the price in the near term.