Russian Federation Interest Rate

The Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 16.5% on October 24th, the 4th consecutive rate cut, and contrasting with market expectations of a hold. Despite the cut, the central bank reiterated that monetary conditions are expected to remain restrictive in the medium term due to persistent upside risks to inflation. Still, consumer inflation expectations remain elevated amid high food prices and a rise in gasoline prices due to Ukrainian attacs on rafineries. Also, the BoR noted that this is likely to be magnified by price increases due to higher VAT levels that the Federal government signaled in next year's budget, necessary to trim its widening deficit to finance the invasion of Ukraine. The bank forecasts inflation to remain at above the 4% target until the end of next year, signaling that the key rate is expected to range between 13% and 15% in the period. While the CBR noted that growth remains resilient, the IMF forecasted the GDP to only expand 0.6% this year.