Aussie Stats Weigh as the Markets Digest Trade Talk

The Aussie Dollar touches sub-$0.69 as more stats disappoint. Chatter on trade and a sparse economic calendar will be in focus today.
Bob Mason
Currencies Symbols

Earlier in the Day:

The economic calendar was on the lighter side through the Asian session this morning. Australia’s April employment figures provided direction early on.

For the Aussie Dollar,

According to figures released by the ABS,

  • The number of employed rose by 28.4k in April, coming in ahead of a forecasted 15.2k increase, following March’s 25.7k rise.
  • Full employment fell by 6.3k, partially reversing a 48.3K rise in March.
  • The unemployment rate rose from a revised 5.1% to 5.2% in April, with the participation rate also rising from 65.7% to 65.8%.
  • Part-time employment increased by 34.7k in April, following a 22.6k decrease in March.
  • Since April 2018, full-time employment increased by 248.1k, while part-time employment has risen by 74.8k.

The Aussie Dollar slid from $0.69232 to $0.68923, upon release of the figures, before finding support. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down 0.27% to $0.6909.

Elsewhere,

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down 0.12% to $0.6556, while the Japanese Yen was up by 0.17% to ¥109.41 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR,

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Finalized April inflation figures are due out of Italy ahead of the Eurozone’s March trade data.

Baring a material deviation from prelim figures, the focus will be on the Eurozone’s trade figures, though it’s going to need to be impressive to spur a EUR rally.

Outside of the numbers, sentiment towards the impact of the extended U.S – China trade war on the Eurozone and global economy will also need to be factored in.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.07% at $1.1209.

For the Pound,

It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK.

The focus throughout the day will continue to be on Brexit. Updates from cross-party talks will likely be key as May and Corbyn look to fend of a Nigel Farage assault on UK politics.

Thrown into the mix on the day is a 24-hour deadline for Theresa May to state her resignation date or be forced out in a month. The British PM meets with the 1922 Committee later today.  Theresa May is being forced to provide an end date that is irrespective of Brexit.

Nigel Farage has upped the stakes and the Tories need to act fast, particularly following the latest EU polls. Political uncertainty weighed heavily on the Pound on Wednesday and there could be more pressure today…

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.02% to $1.2847.

Across the Pond,

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. April housing starts and building permit figures are due out alongside the weekly initial jobless claims and Philly FED manufacturing numbers for May.

While we will expect the focus to be primarily on the Philly FED’s manufacturing numbers, expect housing figures to also provide direction.

For the initial weekly claims, anything better than last week’s 228k will likely be good enough for the Greenback.

Outside of the stats, expect U.S. – China trade war chatter to continue to provide direction. The U.S President has done his best to downplay the likely ramifications of an extended trade war. The proof will be in the pudding…

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.04% at 97.528.

For the Loonie,

Following inflation figures from Wednesday, it’s a quieter day ahead for the Loonie. Key stats due out of Canada include March foreign securities purchases and March manufacturing sales numbers.

We will expect the focus to be on the manufacturing sales figures that are forecasted to be Loonie positive.

Outside the numbers, we can expect the markets and the Loonie to continue to be sensitive to trade war chatter. Support on Wednesday came from news of Mexico and Canada getting close to a deal with the U.S on steel and aluminum tariffs.

Support could also come from rising tensions in the Middle East…

The Loonie was down 0.01% at C$1.3440, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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