Gold Continues to Move Up But for How Long?

Gold prices continued to move higher, as has been the trend this week as the global risks continued to dominate the headlines across the markets. The market is a bit tense about the new administration taking over in the US as it does not know what to expect from him. It hopes that he is not as harsh as he was during the campaign and also hopes that he mellows down on some of his political stances that he had taken during his campaign trail. It would be good for the trade in general if this happens. But so far, there has not been much on that front and it remains to be seen on how he is going to go about his job. There is also the risk around the Brexit process which still remains as risky and as confusing as ever. Such global risks lead to the flow of funds from the risky assets like the stocks to safe assets like gold and this is what we have been seeing over the past week. But gold is likely to reach a crucial point near 1200 pretty soon and the price action here will be the key to determine its short term and medium term trend. We continue to believe that this move up from gold is merely a correction of the downtrend and the downtrend is likely to regain strength once the dollar begins to find its feet again.

Oil prices crashed again yesterday as data continued to show that the agreement between the oil producers to cut production is simply not yielding the results that it was meant to. Though the OPEC and non-OPEC members are trying their best to follow through on the deal, what we are finding in that the exclusions, like Iran and North America have been using this opportunity to increase their production and this has been able to meet the demand and hence the oil prices have not been able to make much headway. This has disappointed the traders and the market and this is the reason for the fall in oil prices over the last couple of days. Looking ahead to today, we have the oil inventory data from the US that will be released later on and this would be one of the keys that is likely to impact the oil prices even further.

Silver prices also continued to climb, in line with the gold prices and it seems to have something more left in the tank and we can expect some more upside in the silver prices in the near term but on the medium term, we expect silver to correct along with gold.