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Private Sector PMIs, Brexit and Trade in Focus

Geopolitics will continue to drive the majors on the day, with private sector PMIs to also provide the EUR and USD with direction.
Bob Mason
Currencies Symbols

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

There were no material stats to influence the majors in the early part of the day, leaving the markets to respond to news wires on Friday and over the weekend.

Late news on Friday tested risk appetite at the start of the week. China canceled a visit to U.S farms in response to the U.S President stating that he had no urge to end the trade war in 2020.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.12% to ¥107.68 against the U.S Dollar. The Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.6275, with the Aussie Dollar up by 0.16% to $0.6777, the pair finding some support after last week’s sell-off.

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The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data includes September private sector PMI numbers out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

After a relatively quiet week on the data front last week, we can expect the EUR to be sensitive to today’s numbers.

Germany’s manufacturing and Eurozone composite will likely be the key drivers. Service sector activity will need to avoid a slowdown, however.

On the geopolitical front, there’s Brexit and U.S – China trade war chatter to also consider throughout the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.1023.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. Economic data is limited to September’s CBI Industrial Trends Orders.

While the UK economy managed to avoid a contraction and the BoE stands pat until there is Brexit clarity, the numbers will influence.

Any moves would likely be short-lived, however, with Brexit remaining the key driver.

Johnson reportedly has 7-days to submit plausible alternatives to the Irish backstop, which will be a test for the Pound as the week progresses.

There is also the Supreme Court ruling on whether it was lawful to suspend Parliament. Another loss for Johnson should provide support to the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.2485.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include prelim September private sector PMIs. Barring a particularly dire manufacturing PMI, the market focus will be on the services PMI. Forecasts are Dollar positive.

Outside of the numbers, any further chatter on trade will influence as will any FOMC member chatter on monetary policy.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 98.448 at the time of writing. Negative sentiment towards the U.S – China trade war and likely impact on the U.S economy weighed early.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. July wholesale sales figures are due out of Canada later this afternoon.

While we can expect plenty of influence from the numbers, negative sentiment towards trade weighed in the early part of the day.

The Loonie was down by 0.10% at C$1.3276, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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