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Bob Mason
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Money world

The Stats

It was a particularly busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 3rd July.

A total of 74 stats were monitored, following the 44 stats from the week prior.

Of the 74 stats, 45 came in ahead forecasts, with 25 economic indicators coming up short of forecast. 4 stats were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 52 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 22, 20 stats reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a 2nd consecutive week in the red. In the week ending 3rd July, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.27% to 97.172. In the week prior, the Dollar had fallen by 0.19%.

COVID-19 remained in focus, as economic data delivered further support to riskier assets in the week.

For the U.S, the daily COVID-19 numbers continued to spike in the week.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers.

The total number of coronavirus cases stood at 11,175,074 on Friday, rising from last Friday’s 9,884,193 total cases. Week-on-week (Saturday through Friday), the total number of cases was up by 1,290,881 on a global basis. This was higher than the previous week’s increase of 1,126,459 in new cases.

In the U.S, the total rose by 338,384 to 2,886,260. In the week prior, the total number of new cases had risen by 250,686. An upward trend was evident throughout the week once more.

Across Germany, Italy, and Spain combined, the total number of new cases increased by 6,464 to bring total infections to 735,809. In the previous week, the total number of new cases had risen by 8,019.

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Out of the U.S

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats in the week included consumer confidence, private sector PMIs, the weekly jobless claims, and June’s nonfarm payrolls.

The all-important consumer confidence and labor market stats were largely skewed to the positive.

The CB Consumer Confidence jumped from 85.9 to 98.1, with nonfarm payrolls jumping by a record 4.8m in June.

A surge in hiring in May and June led the unemployment rate back down to 11.1%.

The weekly jobless claims were disappointing, however, rising by 1.472m following a 1.482m jump in the previous week.

Following the release of the numbers, President Trump was quick to hold a press conference. The focus was on the jump in May and June nonfarm payrolls, consumer confidence, and spending.

It was expected and Trump delivered, with the President talking of records and the gains in the U.S equity markets since his election.

He also promised more for next year, as the administration looked to claw back some of Biden’s lead.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ and S&P500 rallied by 4.62% and by 4.02% respectively. The Dow ended the week up by 3.25%.

Out of the UK

It was a relatively busy week on the economic calendar. Finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers and finalized private sector PMIs were in focus.

The stats were skewed to the negative. Downward revisions to 1st quarter GDP and business investment figures had a muted impact on the Pound, however.

In the 1st quarter, the UK economy contracted by 2.2%, revised down from 2.0%.

The markets have moved on from the 1st quarter, with a slower pace of contraction in the private sector positive.

The all-important services PMI jumped from 29.0 to 47.1, supported by the easing of lockdown measures.

While Angela Merkel sounded the alarm bells over Brexit, there was little for the markets to fret about. Risk appetite through the week added to the upside in the Pound.

In the week, the Pound rose by 1.19% to $1.2483, reversing a 0.11% fall in the previous week. The FTSE100 ended the week down by 0.03%, with a 1.33% slide on Friday delivering the loss.

Out of the Eurozone

It was another busy week economic data front.

Key stats included June private sector PMI for Italy and Spain and finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Consumer spending figures from France and retail sales and unemployment figures from Germany were also in focus.

Both the manufacturing sector and service sector PMIs bounced in June, providing the EUR with support.

France’s private sector led the way, with both manufacturing and service sector activity expanding.

The Eurozone’s composite rose from 31.9 to 48.5 in June.

Germany’s unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, with just a 69k increase in the number of unemployed. In May, there had been a 238k increase in unemployed.

Consumer spending also bounced back in France and Germany as member states reopened.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.26% to $1.1248, following a 0.37% gain from the previous week.

For the European major indexes, it was a bullish week. The DAX30 rallied by 3.63%, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 gaining 1.99% and by 1.98% respectively.

Elsewhere

It was another bullish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 3rd July, the Aussie Dollar rose by 1.08% to $0.6939, with the Kiwi Dollar rising by 1.68% to $0.6531.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a busy week for the Aussie Dollar on the economic data front.

Key stats included May trade and retail sales figures.

There was not much support from trade data, with the trade surplus narrowing from A$8.8bn to A$8.025bn.

At the end of the week, retail sales jumped by 16.9% in May, reversing most of a 17.7% slump from April.

Support ultimately came from better than expected economic data from China, the EU, and the U.S.

Progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine eased some of the market concerns over the recent spike in new COVID-19 cases.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was also a relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

Key stats were limited to May building consents and June business confidence figures.

Both were Kiwi Dollar positive. Building consents surged by 35.6%, with the ANZ Business Confidence Index rising from -41.8 to -34.4.

The Kiwi Dollar also found support from the PMIs out of the EU, China, and the U.S and COVID-19 news.

For the Loonie

It was a relatively busy week on the economic calendar.

Key stats included May’s RMPI and trade data and April’s GDP figures.

The stats were skewed to the positive. The RMPI jumped by 16.4% to reverse a 13.4% slide from April. Canada’s economy contracted by 11.6% versus a forecasted 13.0% contraction. And, Canada’s trade deficit narrowed from C$4.27bn to C$0.68bn.

Positive data coupled with the positive stats from the U.S and hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine delivered the upside.

The Loonie rose by 0.27% to end the week at C$1.3547, partially reversing a 0.60% loss from the previous week.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a busy quiet week on the data front.

In the 1st half of the week, May retail sales and industrial production figures disappointed. Consumer spending continued to slide, with industrial production also seeing another hefty decline in May.

Mid-week, 2nd quarter Tankan survey figures were also skewed to the negative.

Service sector activity provided some hope, however, with the PMI rising from 26.5 to 45.0 in June.

Ultimately, however, the Yen was in the hands of market risk sentiment and COVID-19 updates. The “risk-on” sentiment in the week, left the Yen in the red, in spite of a softer Dollar.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.27% to end the week at ¥107.51. In the week prior, the Yen had fallen by 0.33% against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It was a busy week on the economic data front, with June private sector PMIs in focus.

The stats were skewed to the positive, with both manufacturing and service sector activity picking up.

From the market’s preferred Caixin survey, the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 51.2. At the end of the week, the services PMI rose from 55.0 to 58.4.

In the week ending 3rd July, the Yuan ended the week up by 0.17% CNY7.0663 against the Greenback.

The CSI300 rallied by 6.78%, while the Hang Seng rose by 3.35%.

Geopolitical risk picked up in the week, with Hong Kong and China’s rule of law in focus.

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