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10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – August 6, 2015 Forecast

James Hyerczyk
Daily September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes
Daily September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes

September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes finished sharply lower on Wednesday. Position-squaring ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, or aggressive shorting in anticipation of a strong number and the possibility of a September interest rate hike by the Fed, helped drive the market lower.

Daily September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes

Yesterday’s close put the market on the weak side of a major retracement zone, leading to a sell-off into a short-term retracement zone.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The new short-term range is 126’11 to 127’29.5. A trade through 126’11 will turn the main trend to down on the daily chart.

The main range is 125’10 to 127’29.5. Its retracement zone comes in at 126’20 to 126’10. An uptrending angle passes through the zone at 126’14, making it a valid target also. The combination of the angle at 126’14, the swing bottom at 126’11 and the Fibonacci level at 126’10 makes the 126’14 to 126’10 cluster the key area to watch today.

There may be a technical bounce on the first test of the cluster at 126’14 to 126’10, but the lower level is also a trigger point for a steep downside breakout with the next target coming in at 125’28.

On the upside, regaining the 50% price at 127’01 could trigger a rally into 127’05.5, 127’17.5 or 127’23.5. A trade through 127’20.5 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Based on the close at 126’24, look for a downside bias on a sustained move under 126’20 and an upside bias on a sustained move over 127’01. It is possible that the market will ping pong inside the 126’24 to 127’01 range.  

Volume is expected to be light today so be careful selling weakness and buying strength. 

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