ADA Price Prediction: Bulls Eye a Return to $0.50 on Hard Fork Updates

Key Insights:

• On Friday, cardano (ADA) partially reversed Thursday’s 3.12% loss with a 1.93% gain.
• Market reaction to the Ethereum Merge continued to test buyers. However, progress towards the Vasil hard fork (HFC) remained ADA positive.
• Technical indicators are bullish, with ADA sitting above the 100-day EMA, bringing $0.500 into play.

On Friday, ADA rose by 1.93%. Partially reversing a 3.12% loss from Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.475. The Friday gain was just the second of the week, with the US CPI report and market reaction to the Ethereum Merge weighing.

After a range-bound start to the session, ADA fell to an early afternoon low of $0.455. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.458 before rallying to a final hour high of $0.475. Despite the late rally, ADA came up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.478.

Market reaction to the Ethereum (ETH) Merge remained a headwind, while investor sentiment towards next week’s Vasil hard fork delivered support.

From the US, better-than-expected consumer sentiment figures and falling bets of a percentage point Fed rate hike were also crypto-positive. According to prelim figures, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 58.2 to 59.5. However, sentiment remained well below pre-COVID-19 levels. In February 2020, the Index stood at 101.0.

Following this week’s US economic indicators, the probability of a percentage point Fed rate hike eased from 23% to 18% on Friday. However, while fed fear eased, recession fears resurfaced, testing buyer appetite.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Updates Support Bullish ADA Move

As of September 16, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Twenty-five exchanges are hard fork ready.
• Twenty-one exchanges are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-three have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Seven exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC, and XT.com.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

Investors will be looking for Coinbase and Kraken to complete the upgrade process to deliver ADA price support. The next hard fork event date is September 19. The mainnet update proposal has to be submitted by September 19 to trigger the September 22 hard fork event.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges must upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity). Currently, IOHK reports exchanges upgrades accounting for 55% of ADA liquidity.
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 16, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available on Monday at 1600 UTC.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.63% to $0.478. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to a low of $0.472 before rising to a high of $0.483.

ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.482 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.468 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.482 and the morning high of $0.483. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates will continue to influence as the September 22 hard fork date approaches.

However, with no daily updates on exchange and dApp upgrades until Monday, any news from Input Output HK and broader market sentiment will provide direction today.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.488. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.508.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.462 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.450 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.448. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.428.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 100-day, currently at $0.475. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA closing in on the 100-day EMAs, delivering bullish signals. An ADA move through the 200-day EMA ($0.481) and R1 ($0.482) would support a run at R2 ($0.488).

However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($0.475) and the 50-day EMA ($0.470) would bring S1 ($0.462) into play.