ADA Price Prediction: Mainnet Project Updates Leaves Sub-$0.420 in View

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, cardano (ADA) saw red for a second consecutive day to end the day at $0.430.
• There were no updates from Input Output HK to provide direction, leaving the bearish sentiment from the broader crypto market to weigh.
• The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.420 remains in play.

On Saturday, ADA fell by 1.15%. Following a 0.68% decline on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.430, the lowest day’s end price since August 28.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.436. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.441, ADA slid to a late afternoon low of $0.425. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.429 before a partial recovery to $0.430.

The sixth day in the red from eight sessions saw ADA near the August low of $0.424 before the return to $0.430.

Crypto Market Forces Overshadow Cardano Mainnet Updates

On Friday, US economic indicators vindicated the Fed’s aggressive policy goals to bring inflation to target. Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Investor jitters from Friday’s numbers led to a broader crypto market pullback. Two consecutive days in the red left the market cap down $12.9 billion to $898.5 billion. However, the losses were modest, suggesting some investor resilience.

Following the September 22 Vasil hard fork, Input Output HK and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson have delivered positive updates. However, an anticipated influx of projects has yet to materialize, leaving ADA on the defensive.

According to Input Output HK, the number of projects launched on the Cardano increased by one to 100 in the week ending September 30. Additionally, 1,113 projects are building on Cardano, up by six from the previous week.

Following the Vasil hard fork, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. A surge in projects on the Cardano mainnet would deliver an ADA breakout and a return to $0.50.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.23% to $0.431. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.430 to a high of $0.433.

Technical Indicators

ADA has to avoid a fall through the $0.431 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.435 and the Saturday high of $0.436. A marked shift in investor sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.435.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.439 and $0.440 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.447.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.427 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.425 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.423. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.415. In the case of an extended sell-off, a fall through the August low of $0.424 would bring sub-$0.420 into play.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.441. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.435) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.439) and the 50-day EMA ($0.441). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.462. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.