ADA Price Prediction: Sub-$0.290 in Play on Active Address Downtrend

Key Insights:

• On Friday, ADA joined the broader market in the red, falling 1.01% to end the day at $0.293.
• SEC uncertainty and the downtrend in active daily addresses left ADA on the defensive
• The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, supporting a return to sub-$0.287.

On Friday, cardano (ADA) fell by 1.01%. Following a 1.66% decline on Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.293.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.34% to $0.294. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.292 before rising to a high of $0.294.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ADA remained below the $0.306 – $0.303 resistance band. Importantly, ADA remained below the 50-day ($0.305) and 200-day ($0.344) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

This morning, the 50-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, reflecting bearish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 44.74 reading signaled bearish sentiment. Aligned with the EMAs, the RSI signals an ADA fall through the $0.287 – $0.284 support band. However, an ADA move through the $0.303 – $0.306 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($0.305) would bring $0.310 into play.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, ADA sits below the 50-day ($0.297) and 200-day ($0.302) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Notably, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, reflecting bearish near-term momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 40.22 reading signaled bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Aligned with the EMAs, the RSI signals an ADA fall through the $0.287 – $0.284 support band to bring sub-$0.280 into view.

Input Output HK Updates Delivered Bearish Sentiment

Input Output HK (IOHK) released the weekly development report on Friday. Projects building on the Cardano network and new projects increased modestly.

According to the August 11 Weekly Development Report,

• The number of projects launched on the Cardano network increased by one to 137.
• Projects building on the Cardano network increased by two to 1,273 over one week.
• The total number of native tokens stood at 8.68 million compared with 8.64 million one week earlier.
• Token policies increased from 77,822 to 78,063.
• The total number of transactions increased from 72.7 million to 73.2 million.

While the increase in projects was price bullish, ADA has struggled since the second-quarter network, financial, and ecosystem metrics from IOHK. Average daily addresses declined for the third time in four quarters, reflecting a weakening demand trend.

Beyond the Cardano network, SEC activity contributed to the latest ADA return to sub-$0.300. ADA sits in the same SEC Crypto Securities basket as ETH, leaving ADA price sensitive to SEC v Ripple and SEC v Coinbase case-related updates and SEC scrutiny.

SEC plans to appeal the Judge Torres ruling on the Programmatic Sales of XRP in the SEC v Ripple case will continue to test buyer appetite.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet day for the crypto markets. However, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple Court ruling-related chatter.

However, investors should track ETF, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news, which will continue to move the dial.