ADA Price Prediction: Sub-$0.40 in View Before Any Vasil Breakout

Key Insights:

• On Monday, cardano (ADA) rose by 1.12%, partially reversing a 7.82% slump from Sunday.
• A choppy session saw ADA come under intense selling pressure before finding support from the latest Vasil hard fork update and the broader crypto market.
• However, technical indicators are bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.40.

On Monday, ADA rose by 1.12%. Partially reversing a 7.82% slide from Sunday, ADA ended the day at $0.453.

A bearish start to the day saw ADA slide to a late morning low of $0.433. However, steering clear of the Major Support Levels, ADA rallied to a late high of $0.457. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.478, ADA eased back to end the day at $0.453.

Market sentiment towards the Fed policy decision and the economic outlook weighed through the morning. However, a pickup in appetite for riskier assets supported a rebound as investor fears of a Fed percentage point rate hike abated.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Progress Continues

After numerous delays, the Vasil hard fork is reportedly on schedule for this week. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson talked favorably about the Vasil hard fork event over the weekend. The latest reports also support the September 22 hard fork date.

As of September 19, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Twenty-nine exchanges are hard fork ready up by four from September 16.
• Seventeen exchanges are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-three have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Eight exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, WhiteBit, and XT.com, with three in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, and HitBTC.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

Investors will be looking for Coinbase and Kraken to complete the upgrade process to deliver ADA price support.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges must upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity). Currently, IOHK reports exchanges upgrades accounting for 55% of ADA liquidity.
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 19, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available today at 1600 UTC.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.66% to $0.450. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.455 before falling to a low of $0.446.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.448 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.462. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates will continue to influence as the Thursday Vasil hard fork approaches.

Following Monday’s update, investors will look for exchanges, including Kraken and Coinbase, to complete the upgrade process. However, while the updates will influence, we expect market risk sentiment to remain the key driver before the Fed’s monetary policy decision.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.472. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.496.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.438 into play. Barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.424. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.400.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.471. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 100-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.462) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.471) and R2 ($0.472). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.481. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.