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ADA Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Updates Support Return to $0.50

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Sep 3, 2022, 01:02 UTC

Cardano (ADA) finds early support today, with progress towards the Vasil hard fork price positive. Fed Fear remains a headwind, however.

ADA technical analysis - FX Empire.

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Friday, with Cardano (ADA) falling by 0.66% to join the broader crypto market in the red.
  • US labor market stats and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments overshadowed investor sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork.
  • Despite progress towards the Vasil hard fork, technical indicators remain bearish. ADA sits below the 100-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.40 in play.

On Friday, ADA fell by 0.66%. Partially reversing a 2.47% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.454.

After a choppy morning session, ADA rose to an early afternoon high of $0.467. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.466, ADA slid to a late low of $0.449. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.445, ADA revisited $0.457 before falling back into the red.

Market reaction to US economic indicators and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments on the Fed’s inflation objectives weighed on riskier assets.

Initially, the weaker-than-expected labor market stats provided hope of the Fed taking a less aggressive path toward policy normalization. The hopeful sentiment delivered the ADA high before US Treasury Secretary Yellen talked of the Fed’s obligation to bring inflation to target.

Yellen’s comments sent riskier assets into the red, with ADA falling to the day low of $0.449 in response. However, Vasil hard fork updates cushioned the blow, with the broader crypto market seeing heavier losses.

Cardano Updates Continue to Support a September Hard Fork Date

Vasil hard fork updates continued to support Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson’s September hard fork date prediction. Following 75% of SPO nodes upgrading to v1.35.3, the market focus has turned to two critical mass indicators, these being,

  • Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
  • Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 2, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

  • Five exchanges are hard fork ready, unchanged from the previous day: AscendEX (Bitmax), Bitrue, Dex-Trade, MEXC, and NDAX have upgraded. Bitrue and MEXC form the top 12 exchanges by liquidity.
  • 30 exchanges are in progress, up from 28 as of September 1.
  • Significantly, Coinbase started the upgrade process, with Binance ‘nearly there.’
  • From the top 12, AAX, ChangellyPRO, and ZB.com have not started the upgrade process.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 79% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. Momentum slowed in recent days, with the 75% threshold already achieved. However, Input Output HK called for SPO nodes to continue to upgrade.

SPO node upgrade status.
Fork Upgrades 030922

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up by 0.66% to $0.457. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.454 before climbing to a high of $0.457.

ADA finds support.
ADAUSD 030922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid a fall through the $0.457 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.464 and the Friday high of $0.467. News of Binance upgrading and Coinbase nearing the upgrade should deliver ADA price support.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.475 and resistance at $0.480. News of a formal Vasil hard fork date should support a breakout session. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.493

Updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators will deliver ADA price action over the weekend.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.446 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.44 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.439.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.421.

ADA resistance levels in play.
ADAUSD 030922 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.455. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.455) would bring R1 ($0.464) and the 100-day EMA ($0.466) into play. However, a fallback through the 50-day EMA would bring support levels and sub-$0.40 into view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 030922 4-Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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