ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Price Forecast: Bullish Trend Faces Critical Support Test

Major Pullback Reaches a Key Decision Zone

The stock of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), a leading Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, has reached a critical decision point for its pullback. A peak of $1,999.96 was reached in late June, resulting in a gain of 60.3% for the stock during the most recent upswing. When measuring from the more significant April 2025 swing low, ASML had advanced as much as 245.7%.

The subsequent pullback reached a new low of $1,530.64 on Wednesday, thereby completing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance, and further testing support near the confluence of the 100-day and 20-week moving averages, near $1,581 and $1,598, respectively, along with the prior trend high of $1,547.22 from February.

Moving Averages Maintain the Uptrend Structure

Given the confluence of support indicators, especially the 100-day moving average, ASML has reached an area that can lead to a bounce, while sustaining the integrity of the uptrend defined by both the 100-day and 20-week moving averages. This means that this week’s low could be the lowest traded price before eventually reaching a new trend high above $1,999.96. Both the 100-day and 20-week moving averages have done a good job of defining dynamic support for the recent bullish trend structure. Price has remained above those averages since they were last reclaimed before bullish momentum accelerated in September, other than for a short undercut of the 20-week during the prior pullback.

Relative Strength Keeps the Bullish Case Alive

On a relative performance basis, ASML has held up better than many semiconductor and technology stocks recently. A pullback to this week’s low is a normal and healthy process for the broader trend. Further lows are not indicated unless the $1,530.64 low is broken decisively to the downside. That would point to a lower target around $1,248 as the next significant support area.

Breakout Retest Could Confirm Further Strength

Supportive of a bullish recovery is a large rising trend channel. A successful breakout above the channel triggered in late May and Wednesday’s low may complete the first pullback following that significant breakout. A recovery of the upper channel boundary would confirm a successful retest of the channel breakout and therefore signal continued underlying strength of the larger bullish trend.

The potential recovery highlighted above depends on whether ASML can hold the key support zone around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and major averages. If that support remains intact, the pullback may represent a healthy reset within the broader uptrend rather than a trend reversal.

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