The Easter weekend is officially over, and we’re stepping right back into the geopolitical minefield, as Iran abruptly proposes terms to end the Middle East war, while Trump simultaneously threatens drastic, unprecedented military escalation ahead of his highly anticipated Strait of Hormuz reopening deadline. Complete and utter chaos. If that critical shipping lane actually closes, crude prices will inevitably spike, sending severe shockwaves through global supply chains and immediately re-igniting the exact inflation fears that the RBA thought they had successfully managed when they hiked the cash rate to 4.10% last month. A delicate balance indeed. Nonetheless ASX 200 looks promising as key breakouts occurred over the last 24 hours and is expected to hold for the next 24. It may be time to start positioning long for the re-test of ATH.

Buying of the Dip on ASX 200

Bears got trapped. The structure held. Looking at the weekly chart, there are initial signs of structural reversal. Buyers are taking control. Notice how the index knifed through the Supertrend’s 8,652.0 boundary, triggering seemingly panic, only to snap right back up. Squeeze is on. Indeed, unpredictable geopolitical headlines artificially suppress asset prices, because they provide us with a highly defined, structurally sound, and fundamentally undeniable pivot for managing our forward swing risk. The technicals shifted. Algorithmic trend-followers will be forced to aggressively cover their severely underwater shorts, fundamentally altering the immediate supply and demand dynamics, as long as we sustain this newly reclaimed territory above that critical 8650 level. Momentum points upward, at least for now. Targeting 9,225 resistance.

ASX 200 Weekly Chart Shows Lower Wick and Dual Supertrend

ASX 200 weekly technical chart Supertrend. Source: TradingView

Daily 21 EMA Breakout Ignites Bullish Momentum

The bulls are fighting back! The index carved out a bit of a V-shaped recovery off the 8,255 lows, dragging price action into a pivotal clash with the 21-period EMA that currently sits at around 8,614.8, which alters the immediate market structure for active swing traders. We reclaimed midlines. The 14-period RSI sits at above 50, after being below it for the past 20 trading sessions. However, I doubt this straight-line recovery holds without a secondary test, especially when you consider the overarching macroeconomic threats, and the undeniable fact that indecision reigns supreme with momentum sitting dead center right now. EMA must hold. A failure validates a lower high.

ASX 200 Daily Chart with V-Shaped Bounce & RSI Reset

ASX 200 MA breakout. Source: TradingView

Micro Renko Signals Intraday Trend Exhaustion

Dialing directly into the 11-Brick exposes a rapidly deteriorating micro-structure, heavily burdened by the looming Supertrend resistance sitting at 8755, capping any further upside progress. Sellers hit tape. Price peaked near 8,816.7. We cascaded into a rigid succession of red bricks that quickly dragged the RSI down to an oversold 37.17, while simultaneously pushing the 20-period Z-Score to a heavily negative -1.1, highlighting a distinct lack of immediate buying enthusiasm on the intraday tape. Short-term momentum broke. But it looks exhausted. The 500 SMA lurks far below at 8509.3 with support.

ASX 200 Renko Shows Selling Pressure & Resistance

ASX 200 micro Renko chart resistance. Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Trade Parameters

Current trend direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key support levels: 8,255; 8,510; 8,655

Key resistance levels: 9,225

Medium-term path: The positive bias on ASX 200 kicked in. This initiates buying opportunities for the Index with expectations of a re-test of the 9,225 highs. Holding the 8,655 levels (to end the week) and the 21-Day EMA (it is 3 days above so hopefully the 8,255 pivot low is in) is key. To change from neutral trend to positive trend would be the taking out of the 9,225. This may take several weeks or even perhaps several months.