S&P 500 Forecast: Tech Weakness and Hormuz Risk Stall the 6,600 Breakout

With President Donald Trump issuing catastrophic ultimatums regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and US forces reportedly striking Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub, market participants are bearish equities on the day. We aren’t panicking yet. A waiting game this is. Apple dragged the entire sector lower after unexpected engineering setbacks with its highly anticipated foldable phone hit the news wires. Tech bleeds out. Broadcom provided cover though. They jumped sharply after securing a massive, long-term AI chip development deal with Google, which offered a rare, isolated pocket of strength amidst the widespread, indiscriminate selling pressure currently gripping the broader technology landscape. Healthcare also caught some bids. UnitedHealth soared almost 9% alongside Humana, catching an unexpected structural tailwind after the government announced surprisingly generous Medicare Advantage payment hikes that artificially supported the struggling index today.

Durable Goods Miss Highlights Fragility

Durable Goods Orders for April fell by -1.40%, drastically underperforming the -0.50% forecast, signaling an undeniable contraction in corporate capital expenditure that fundamentally undermines the soft-landing narrative bulls have been desperately clinging to for months. Companies stopped spending. I think this underlying macroeconomic weakness, colliding head-on with an unexpected Middle Eastern oil shock, creates an exceptionally toxic, volatile environment for any sustained equity rallies going forward. SPX has to climb the wall of worry. Stagflation fears multiply.

April US Durable Good Orders Drop 1.4%

US Durable Goods Orders month-over-month bar chart actual at negative 1.40 percent versus negative 0.50 percent forecast. Source: TradingView

Weekly Supertrend Defines Macro Resistance

Sellers are maintaining control. After printing an aggressive all-time high at 7014.6, we’re currently witnessing this multi-week pullback that broke though the Dual Supertrend. Both indicators have flipped negative and are acting as resistance around the 6,650 and 7,090 levels. Indeed, the overhead supply remains overwhelmingly dominant, suffocating every single rally attempt before it can even begin to generate any meaningful upside momentum on the higher timeframes. The chart cracks.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart Below Dual Supertrend

Weekly candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index featuring the Supertrend indicator highlighting long-term support and resistance levels. Source: TradingView

Daily EMA Potential Failure Exposes Weakness

Bulls are fighting. But they may lose 6,600. Our daily chart highlights a potential rejection right at the 21-period EMA, a critical dynamic resistance level that aggressive swing traders ruthlessly defended, systematically pushing price action back down toward the mid-6500s while the 14-period RSI drifts lazily into bearish territory at 46.72 without flashing any signs of oversold relief. We’re trapped. A trigger is needed for the bullish revival. But there is none in sight.

Daily S&P 500 Index price action Tests 21 EMA

Daily S&P 500 chart demonstrating price rejection at the 21 period exponential moving average near 6,604. Source: TradingView

Renko Structure Confirms Resistance

Indeed the resistance is thick. I always check the 20-Brick Renko and right now it shows an Index trapped in a choppy, multi-week consolidation box, below the 500 SMA. Despite the Supertrend printing a buy signal, the underlying RSI at 56.61 and the oscillating Z-score hovering near 0.6, we are seeing some bearish divergence on the Z-Score. Momentum is dying. It looks more like a 6,310 re-test to me. At least in the short term.

SPX Still Below the Renko SMA in the Sand

20-Brick Renko showing price testing the 500 SMA Source: TradingView

6,600 Resistance, 6,460 Breakdown Risk

Current trend direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Key support levels: 6210, 6310

Key resistance levels:6,650, 6700, 7015

Medium term path: A decisive daily close above 6,600 releases bullish momentum back in the SPX but this seems very fleeting. At the time of writing, the 21-EMA on the daily chart seems to be holding. If this continues we may see a re-test of the March 2026 lows. The level of support to watch is 6,310. That’s the anchor for the rest of this week.