Solana Price Prediction: SOL Seems Poised to Break $78 Support on Weak Volumes

Solana (SOL) has shed 4% of its value in the past 24 hours and is once again trading below the $80 as the market remains worried about the consequences of increasingly high oil prices.

Crude prices exceeded the $116 mark today, as President Trump threatened Iran once again, saying that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless the government reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

The head of state has been making similar threats in the past few days, and plans to bomb Iran’s key infrastructure and power plants if the government refuses to accept his demands.

The market does not seem convinced that Trump’s attacks will lead to the immediate reopening of the Strait, as reflected by these persistently high oil prices.

The result: analysts no longer expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year, as higher energy costs could result in a spike in inflation.

On-Chain Data Favors a Bearish Outlook as Network Usage Plummets

Solana trading volumes remain high at $3.5 billion, accounting for more than 7% of the token’s circulating market cap.

However, on-chain data indicates that interest in this altcoin has been fading in the past few weeks.

According to Artemis, transaction volumes have been declining five weeks in a row, indicating low demand for meme coins and a decline in network usage.

Investors have been primarily focused on top tokens like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as these are perceived as the “blue chips” of the crypto market.

Moreover, trading volumes have been plummeting during that same period, dropping from $34 billion during the last week of February to $23 billion as of last week, meaning a 32% retreat.

Lower volumes during a bear market could indicate two things:

1. The selling pressure has been easing.
2. Buying interest remains weak.

SOL Eyes 15% Drop if It Loses This Key Support

Solana is now the worst-performing token in the top 5 (excluding stablecoins) with year-to-date losses of nearly 37%.

Heading to the daily chart, we can see that SOL has been consolidating for over two months now, trading relatively range-bound between $78 and $90.

This might be an early indication that we are in the late stages of this bear market, unless macroeconomic conditions deteriorate even further for some reason.

The war with Iran and any unexpected implications arising from that situation could catalyze further drops in the price of risky assets like SOL. Hence, it is entirely possible that we could see the token dropping to $67 or lower in the near term.

Keep in mind that the price has been pushed back to $78, the key support to watch, multiple times. This is not good news, as it means that the market is in desperate need of liquidity, as confirmed by weak volumes.

Hence, the odds of a bearish breakout are high at this point, and the downside risk is around 15%.