AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 17, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is advancing on Wednesday after a government report showed China’s economy grew more than expected. The Aussie is benefitting because it often acts as a proxy for the Chinese economy. The news helped reverse some of the damage from the previous session caused by the somewhat dovish minutes from the Reserve Bank’s April policy meeting.

At 08:29, the AUD/USD is trading .7203, up 0.0028 or +0.40%.

Earlier in the session, China reported its economy grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019, beating analysts’ expectations. Traders were looking for a 6.3 percent increase. The data suggests the Chinese economy may be bottoming after the government injected additional stimulus earlier in the year.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session after buyers drove the AUD/USD through .7192. The Forex pair is now in a position to take out the next main top at .7207. This is followed by another top at .7296. The trend will change to down on a move through .7052.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .7109 will change the minor trend to down. The uptrend was confirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out .7192.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone is .7153 to .7079. The AUD/USD is trading on the strong side of this zone, putting it in a bullish position. This zone is new support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7203, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the previous main top at .7207.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out the main top at .7207 will reaffirm the uptrend and signal the buying is getting stronger. If this creates enough upside momentum, this could fuel an acceleration into a downtrending Gann angle at .7275, followed by another main top at .7296.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome and sustain a rally over .7207 will signal the return of sellers. They could be traders taking profits ahead of the Australian Employment report. A pull-back under the previous top at .7192 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further decline into a support cluster at .7157 to .7153.

Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of .7157 to .7153, but if it fails then we’re likely to see a test of an uptrending Gann angle at .7135. If this angle fails then look for the AUD/USD to break sharply.