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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 27, 2019 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Aug 27, 2019, 10:01 UTC

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6749.

AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Tuesday after failing to follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. On Monday, buyers came in at .6690, slightly above the August bottom at .6677 after President Trump made positive comments about U.S.-China trade relations.

Earlier today, Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Deputy Governor Guy Debelle warned that the current threats to the global rules-based trading system were a major risk to both his country’s economy and the world’s.

Debelle also said Australia’s central bank would consider unconventional monetary options if the cash rate was cut to 0.5%, though he hoped such heavy policy adjustments would not be needed.

At 09:41 GMT, the AUD/USD is at .6760, down 0.0017 or -0.25%.

AUDUSD
Daily AUD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The Forex pair is in no position to change the main trend to up, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement. Momentum will shift to the upside when Monday’s closing price reversal top is confirmed on a trade through .6788.

A trade through .6690 will negate the closing price reversal bottom, while a move through .6677 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6821 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The minor range is .6677 to .6821. Its pivot at .6749 continues to control the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The main range is .7082 to .6677. Its retracement zone at .6880 to .6927 remains the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6749.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6749 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to try to take out yesterday’s high at .6788, confirming the closing price reversal bottom. This could trigger a further rally into the downtrending Gann angle at .6812. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this angle.

Overtaking .6812 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the minor top at .6821. A breakout over this level will change the minor trend to up with the main 50% level at .6880 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6749 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create the downside momentum needed to challenge yesterday’s low at .6690, followed by the main bottom at .6677. If this bottom fails then look for the selling pressure to increase.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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