AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Chance of Dec Rate Cut at 24% as Aussie Tests Retracement Zone at .6800 to .6770

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6795, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6800.
James Hyerczyk
Australian Dollar and Coins

The Australian Dollar is trading sharply lower on Thursday after weak employment data drove up the chances of a December rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). News that China’s industrial output grew significantly slower than expected in October also weighed on the Aussie. Even before the release of the reports, there was a bearish tone in the market due to dimming prospects of a near-term trade deal between the United States and China.

At 07:22 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6795, down 0.0043 or -0.62%.

Earlier today, a government report showed Australian employment suffered its sharpest fall in three years last month, underlining the need for urgent stimulus to revive economic activity and wages. After the report was released, financial markets showed around a 24% probability of a quarter-point easing at the RBA’s next meeting on December 3, rising to 62% for February.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down earlier today when sellers took out the previous main bottom at .6809.

The AUD/USD collapsed when sellers took out a cluster of Gann angles at .6826 to .6830. This area is new resistance.

The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6800 to .6770 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6795, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6800.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6800 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this continues to generate enough downside pressure, we could see a plunge into the main Fibonacci level at .6770.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6800 will signal the return of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at .6826 to .6830. Since the main trend is down, sellers could return.

Side Notes

Traders have placed the chances of a December rate cut at just 24%. As long as this holds then look for aggressive counter-trend buyers to try to build a support base inside .6800 to .6770. If the chance of a cut moves higher then sellers will probably push the AUD/USD into the Fibonacci level at .6770.

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