AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Chance of Dec Rate Cut at 24% as Aussie Tests Retracement Zone at .6800 to .6770

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6795, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6800.
James Hyerczyk
Australian Dollar and Coins

The Australian Dollar is trading sharply lower on Thursday after weak employment data drove up the chances of a December rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). News that China’s industrial output grew significantly slower than expected in October also weighed on the Aussie. Even before the release of the reports, there was a bearish tone in the market due to dimming prospects of a near-term trade deal between the United States and China.

At 07:22 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6795, down 0.0043 or -0.62%.

Earlier today, a government report showed Australian employment suffered its sharpest fall in three years last month, underlining the need for urgent stimulus to revive economic activity and wages. After the report was released, financial markets showed around a 24% probability of a quarter-point easing at the RBA’s next meeting on December 3, rising to 62% for February.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down earlier today when sellers took out the previous main bottom at .6809.

The AUD/USD collapsed when sellers took out a cluster of Gann angles at .6826 to .6830. This area is new resistance.

The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6800 to .6770 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6795, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6800.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6800 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this continues to generate enough downside pressure, we could see a plunge into the main Fibonacci level at .6770.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6800 will signal the return of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at .6826 to .6830. Since the main trend is down, sellers could return.

Side Notes

Traders have placed the chances of a December rate cut at just 24%. As long as this holds then look for aggressive counter-trend buyers to try to build a support base inside .6800 to .6770. If the chance of a cut moves higher then sellers will probably push the AUD/USD into the Fibonacci level at .6770.

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
RISK DISCLAIMER
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
FOLLOW US