AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Counter-Trend Buyers Defending .7363-.7317 Retracement Zone

The Australian Dollar is inching lower on Monday in a choppy, low-volume trade. The currency is being propped up by some technical buying after touching support on Friday. However, the Aussie is still nursing last week’s losses as global central bankers vowed to keep rates low defying pressure from markets’ interest rate projections amid surging inflation.

At 07:12 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7401, down 0.0002 or -0.02%

“The market continues to adjust to the RBA’s relatively dovish message, and there is likely to be a further shift in that direction given the global central bank messaging,” said Westpac’s strategist in a client note.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7360 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7556 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7471 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is .7170 to .7556. Its retracement zone at .7363 to .7317 is support. This area stopped the selling at .7360 on Friday.

The minor range is .7556 to .7360. Its 50% level at .7458 is the nearest resistance. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on a test of this level.

The AUD/USD is also trading inside a long-term retracement zone at .7379 to .7499.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7379.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7379 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a surge into .7458. Look for sellers on the first test of this level. Taking it out could trigger a further move into the minor top at .7471.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7379 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the support cluster at .7363-.7360.

If .7360 fails to hold then look for the selling to possibly accelerate into .7317. Counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this level, but it’s also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.