AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 25, 2018 Forecast

Trade war concerns and lower crude oil prices are weighing on the Australian Dollar early Monday. Prices rose on Friday after the commodity-linked Aussie rose in reaction to OPEC’s decision to increase production below expectations. This news offset any concerns over the ongoing trade dispute be the U.S. and China, at least temporarily.

At 0417 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7424, down 0.0017 or -0.22%.

Despite the rally at the end of last week, the long-term outlook for the Australian Dollar remains bearish due to expectations of rising interest rates in the U.S. and the dovish outlook for Australian rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Periodic short-term, short-covering rallies can occur, but don’t expect them to last because of uninspiring domestic data.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7345 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7677.

The short-term range is .7677 to .7345. Its retracement zone at .7511 to .7550 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to show up on a test of this zone. They are going to try to produce another secondary lower top.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .7417. This angle was tested successfully earlier today.

A sustained move over .7417 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a retest of Friday’s high at .7445. A trade through this level will make .7345 a new main bottom and indicate the buying is getting stronger.

If the buying continues to increase then look for a possible test of the main 50% level at .7511.

A sustained move under .7417 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the AUD/USD into the long-term uptrending Gann angle at .7401.

Look for the start of an acceleration to the downside on a sustained move under .7401. The first target is last week’s low at .7345 and the May 9, 2017 main bottom at .7329.

Basically look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over .7417, and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under .7401.