AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Running Into Resistance

The Australian dollar tried to rally during most of the session on Monday, running into resistance at the same place as it has in the past. By doing so, it looks very likely that it will continue to be noisy and cause some issues. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the 0.69 handle, has been rather stringent resistance, and it looks as if it will continue to be going forward. With that in mind, I like the idea of selling this pair if we can lose about 30 pips or so.

AUD/USD Video 22.10.19

The alternate scenario is that we break above the resistance and go looking towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 0.6925 handle. Above there, then we have to worry about the 200-day EMA which is starting to race below the 0.70 level. Remember that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy so therefore the US/China trade situation continues to be something that will work against the value of the Aussie. That’s a situation that is a bit quieter at the moment, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s a whole lot better. With that being the case, I think that the market will try to carve out some type of consolidation range between current levels and the 0.67 handle underneath, meaning that we are at the top of that range and could find an opportunity to start shorting soon. Because of this, I would be cautious but do believe that selling is probably the prudent thing.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below