AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar tries to break out

The Australian dollar rallied on Monday to break towards the 0.7150 level. If we can break above that level, the market should continue to go even higher. However, I think that the market will struggle to rally for the longer-term, especially near the 0.72 handle.
Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, October 16, 2018

The Australian dollar has been rather resilient during the Monday session, bouncing from the 0.71 handle. However, even though this is a bullish turn of events, I think that the upside is somewhat limited. The 0.72 level above should be thought of as a significant technical barrier, extending to the 0.7233 handle. I’m looking for some type of exhaustive candle to start selling closer to that area. In the meantime though, I think short-term traders will probably continue to push to the upside.

Gold has been rallying rather significantly during the trading session on Monday as well, so that of course helps the Aussie rally a bit. However, I think that this is probably short lived at best, so unless you can sit at the desk and watch the trade, you are probably going to be better off simply waiting for signs of exhaustion above. If we did break above the 0.7233 handle, then I think the market has an opportunity to go to the 0.7350 level after that.

If we turn around and break down below the 0.71 level, I think that the market probably goes to the 0.7050 level, and then eventually the 0.70 level. Overall, I am bearish of the Australian dollar as long as the US/China relations continue to sour, and they show no real signs of trying to turn things around. Overall, I think that simply waiting for a set up above is probably the best way forward for many of you.

AUD/USD Video 16.10.18

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