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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6 – October 10, 2014 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

The AUD/USD hit a four year low last week after better-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could

Weekly AUD/USD

The AUD/USD hit a four year low last week after better-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin hiking interest rates sooner rather than later.

Sellers took control of the market, following the release of the September jobs report which showed the U.S. economy added 248,000 new jobs versus pre-report estimates of 215,000. The unemployment rate also fell below 6.0%. The news drove up U.S. interest rates which made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment than the Australian Dollar.

The strength of the U.S. jobs data is expected to carry over into this week. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to meet on October 7. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has made several attempts recently to publicly question the valuation of the Australian Dollar, putting a bearish spin on the currency.

The AUD/USD is expected to see more selling pressure this week if Stevens stands his ground. At the last RBA meeting, Stevens said, “The exchange rate remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices.” If the RBA continues down this road, look for further price deterioration.

Weekly AUD/USD
Weekly AUD/USD

High Impact Economic Events That Traders Should Be Aware Of This Coming Week

Currency         Event                                                                      Forecast                           Previous

Monday, October 6

There are on high impact economic events today.

Tuesday, October 7

AUD               Cash Rate

AUD               RBA Rate Statement

Wednesday, October 8         

USD                FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, October 9

AUD                Employment Change                                              -29.6K                             121K

AUD                Unemployment Rate                                               6.2%                               6.1%

USD                Unemployment Claims                                           291K                                287K

Friday, October 10

There are on high impact economic events today. 

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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