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Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Cycle Analysis Update
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Since the publication of the prior cycle analysis, Bitcoin price action has continued to evolve within the same broader corrective framework.
Market Context
Recent developments do not materially alter the primary thesis; rather, they provide additional short-term clarity on how the current corrective phase may resolve before the next directional move emerges.
Overall market behavior remains consistent with a late-stage corrective environment, characterized by controlled downside pressure rather than structural breakdown.
Wave Path: Short-Term Structural Development
The updated chart refines the near-term Elliott Wave path, highlighting the progression of the final segments of the corrective structure. Current price behavior suggests that the market is approaching the completion of the ongoing bearish sequence, with limited remaining downside implied under the base scenario.
An alternative interpretation allows for a more extended internal structure should volatility expand, but this remains a secondary outcome pending confirmation from price and momentum.
Candlestick Structure and Momentum
The update introduces a bearish candlestick configuration, consistent with sustained short-term selling pressure. This pattern is approaching completion, after which historical precedent suggests an increased probability of a counter-trend rebound.
The forthcoming candle is emphasized as technically important, as its close will either confirm exhaustion of the bearish sequence or signal further structural extension.
Near-Term Price Path
Upon completion of the current bearish pattern, the primary tactical expectation is for a relief move toward the $100,000 region, aligning with prior resistance, structural symmetry, and corrective retracement behavior.
This rebound would be viewed as part of the corrective process rather than the start of a new impulsive trend, unless supported by broader confirmation signals.
Final Remarks
This update reinforces the core conclusion of the original analysis: Bitcoin remains within a technically coherent correction embedded in a broader cyclical structure. Recent price action refines the timing and short-term dynamics but does not invalidate the higher-level framework.
As with all cycle- and structure-based analyses, this outlook is probabilistic. Market participants should continue to monitor confirmation levels, invalidation thresholds, and weekly closing behavior as the correction approaches resolution. This is an update of the previously published Bitcoin analysis.
About the Author
Aziz Kenjaevcontributor
Technical analyst, crypto-enthusiast, ex-VP at TradingView, medium and long-term trader, trades and analyses FX, Crypto and Commodities markets.
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