Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Inches Up as BTC Tests Resistance at $25,000

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.07%. The modest decline came despite an attempt at $25,000.
• Softer US wholesale inflation figures provided early support before the NASDAQ 100 changed the Fed narrative.
• In response to the BTC run at $25,000, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index increased from 41/100 to 42/100, supporting another BTC look at $25,000.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.07%. Following a 3.47% rally on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $23,943.

A bullish morning saw BTC rally to an early afternoon high of $24,896. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,560 before hitting reverse.

The reversal saw BTC slide to a low of $23,667 before finding support. BTC steered clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,018.

Following softer US CPI numbers, US wholesale inflation figures were also crypto-friendly. The annual rate of wholesale inflation softened from 11.3% to 9.8% in July.

Despite the softer inflation numbers, inflation remained well above the Fed’s target, leaving the markets to bet on another sizeable rate hike in September, which weighed on the appetite for riskier assets. The NASDAQ 100 ended the day with a 0.58% loss.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Nears the Neutral Zone with a Return to 42

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 41/100 to 42/100, supported by a BTC run at $25,000. Market reaction to the US inflation figures continued to provide support. The upside came despite BTC ending the day at sub-$24,000.

The return to 42/100 leaves the Index on the border of the Neutral zone. The Index last visited the Neutral zone on April 6. A return to Neutral would support a BTC move through $25,000 to bring $30,000 into play.

Later today, US consumer sentiment figures could move the dial.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.03% to $23,937.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $24,168 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,671 and the Thursday high of $24,896.

BTC would need a bullish start to the session to support a breakout from $24,500.

An extended crypto rally would see BTC test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,400 and resistance at $26,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $26,627.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,442 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,939.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,711.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,550.

The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, the signals BTC price positive.

A 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a run at R1 ($24,671) to bring $25,000 into play.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would likely see BTC test S1 ($23,442) and support at the 100-day EMA ($23,209).

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the August high of $24,896 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,688, would support the current upward trend. From $32,000, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through $20,000 and the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.

However, as shown below, BTC is on a trend of higher lows, supporting a more bullish outlook.