Bitcoin Price Nears ‘Golden Cross’ With Roughly 40% Rally Potential

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a potentially bullish golden cross that has preceded strong three-month returns since March 2020.

Bitcoin Gained ~38% Average After Previous Golden Crosses

As of Thursday, Sept. 10, Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, red) stood near $72,708, just below its 200-day EMA (blue) at around $72,864.

A crossover would confirm the golden cross, a technical signal that typically reflects improving medium-term momentum. History has largely favored Bitcoin following similar setups.

Since March 2020, BTC has recorded four comparable 50-day/200-day EMA golden crosses. Bitcoin rallied approximately 44.34%, 37.12%, 11.15%, and 58.01% over the subsequent 90 days.

That puts the average three-month return at roughly 37.7%, with Bitcoin finishing higher after all four signals.

The latest setup appears as BTC trades near $77,400, already above both long-term EMAs. Its 20-day EMA (green) has also climbed toward $77,060, reflecting improving short-term momentum following the rebound from June lows.

A 37.7% advance from current levels would put BTC near $106,500 within roughly three months if Bitcoin repeats its historical average after the upcoming crossover.

The golden cross, however, remains unconfirmed until the 50-day EMA decisively moves above the 200-day EMA.

Bitcoin Cup-and-Handle Breakout Could Target $113,000

The incoming golden cross also coincides with a potentially bullish cup-and-handle structure on Bitcoin’s daily chart.

BTC appears to have completed the “cup” after recovering from its June low near $58,000 back toward the $80,000–$82,000 resistance zone.

That area previously acted as a distribution range in May and now serves as the pattern’s neckline.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating below the neckline inside a broadening wedge, which may represent the handle phase of the larger setup. A breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline would put the $80,000–$82,000 region back in focus.

More importantly, a decisive daily close above $82,000 would confirm the broader cup-and-handle breakout.

The conventional measured move, adding the cup’s roughly $23,000–$24,000 depth to the neckline, initially points toward the $104,000–$106,500 region.

An extended continuation could subsequently bring the $113,000 area into view, representing roughly 47% upside from current prices near $76,700.

Conversely, a breakdown from the broadening wedge would delay the bullish setup and expose Bitcoin to its 50-day and 200-day EMAs near $72,700–$72,900.