Is Zcash Rally Over? Three Chart Indicators Warn of 20%–25% ZEC Price Dip

Zcash (ZEC) is showing signs of upside exhaustion after a blistering 170% rally over the past month pushed its price to my intended target of around $1,300, the highest level since 2016.

Bearish Divergence, Rising Wedge Put ZEC Rally at Risk

As of Thursday, Sept. 10, ZEC/USD was down more than 2%. The pullback came amid renewed US–Iran tensions that pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, weighing on broader risk sentiment.

At least two technical indicators hinted at prolonged selloff periods for Zcash.

First, ZEC’s four-hour chart showed a growing divergence between its rising prices and falling relative strength index (RSI). In other words, ZEC is making higher highs while momentum weakens, suggesting buyers are losing strength and a reversal risk is growing.

Second, the token is painting what appears to be a rising wedge, a technical setup that represents two ascending, converging trendlines.

Traditional analysts see the wedge as a “bearish reversal” pattern that resolves when price breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the wedge’s maximum height.

Applying this theory to ZEC’s price patterns puts its measured downside target around $1,000 if the breakdown point comes in near $1,200. The $1,000 level is closer to Zcash’s 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA, red).

ZEC Could Retreat Toward $960

Zcash’s two-week chart also points to growing correction risk after its near-vertical advance.

ZEC is trading around $1,220 after pushing well above the 1.0 Fibonacci extension near $902, while its two-week RSI has climbed to roughly 77, firmly inside overbought territory. Such readings often appear when a rally becomes stretched and vulnerable to profit-taking.

A pullback toward $900 would therefore represent a natural retest of ZEC’s recent breakout area, amounting to a decline of roughly 25% from current levels.

The $902 Fib level is particularly important. Holding above it would keep the broader bullish structure intact, while a decisive breakdown could signal that ZEC’s correction is developing into something deeper.

ZEC Liquidation Map Adds to Bearish Pressure

Zcash’s liquidation heatmap strengthens the bearish case, showing a heavier concentration of leveraged positions below the current price, according to data resource CoinGlass.

The largest single liquidation cluster sits near $929, where roughly $6.49 million in long positions could be wiped out. Cumulative long liquidations rise to about $99.33 million around that region.

The imbalance is also notable. A rally toward $1,350 could liquidate roughly $33.8 million in shorts, while a drop below $1,000 could erase more than $55 million in longs.

That heavier downside liquidity may act as a price magnet, reinforcing the correction risks already signaled by ZEC’s bearish technical setup.