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WMT, COST and AMZN Forecast: Higher Rates Test Consumers

By: 
Christopher Lewis

Walmart, Costco and Amazon face key technical setups as U.S. rates rise, with WMT and COST eyeing rebounds while AMZN tests Fibonacci support.

WMT Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for WMT showing price at 105.83 and pre-market at 106.76, below the 50-day EMA at 110.86 and the 200-day EMA at 114.20.
Daily price chart for WMT showing price at 105.83 attempting a pre-market rebound to 106.76 below the 50 EMA (110.86) and 200 EMA (114.20). Source: TradingView

One of the first places I’ll look at is Walmart. Walmart looks like it’s going to jump a little bit in pre-market trading as interest rates are rising in America, putting perhaps some downward pressure on the idea that consumers will be out there consuming.

The Walmart gap from the earnings call in the middle of August still has yet to be filled. That, in theory, has the market looking to the 200-day EMA if we do, in fact, try that, right around the $114.20 level.

COST Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for COST showing price at 902.60 and pre-market at 908.34, trading below the 50-day EMA at 946.67 and 200-day EMA at 959.55.
Daily price chart for COST showing price trading at 902.60 with pre-market indication at 908.34 beneath the 50 EMA (946.67) and 200 EMA (959.55). Source: TradingView

Costco looks like it’s going to jump at the open as well. As pre-market trading starts to focus on the value end of the play, I anticipate that, with higher rates, it does make a certain amount of sense that these wholesalers may attract a little bit of attention.

The earnings call is on the 24th, so we’ve got about 2 weeks for that. In the meantime, those who are short Costco going into that earnings call could possibly be looking to cover those shorts as well. So, it does set up for some type of movement.

AMZN Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for AMZN showing price at 252.40 testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, below the 50-day EMA at 256.13 and above the 200-day EMA at 242.47.
Daily price chart for AMZN showing price at 252.40 testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level, trading below the 50 EMA (256.13) and above the 200 EMA (242.47). Source: TradingView

Amazon looks a little soft. It’s the outlier, as it’s going to open up right around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that massive move after earnings. Higher interest rates and, of course, trade friction really hit Amazon, as so much of it comes from overseas.

That being said, this is an area that technical traders may be watching for a bounce, so it certainly is on my radar. If it breaks above the 50-day EMA, I might be tempted to start buying again.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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