BTC and a Return to $27,000 in the Hands of China and US Stats

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Tuesday session, with BTC rising by 2.28% to end the day at $24,735.
• US economic indicators and easing Silicon Valley Bank jitters supported a breakout session.
• Technical indicators are bullish, with $30,000 in view.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.28%. Following a 9.51% surge on Monday, BTC ended the day at $24,735. Significantly, BTC revisited the $26,000 handle for the first time since June 2022.

After a range-bound start, BTC surged to a mid-day high of $26,529 before hitting reverse. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,229 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $26,276. However, the reversal saw BTC slide to a low of $24,060. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,507, BTC bounced back to end the day at $24,735.

US Economic Indicators and the NASDAQ Composite Deliver Support

Economic indicators from the US delivered a bullish session, with the all-important US CPI report drawing plenty of interest.

In February, the annual inflation rate softened from 6.4% to 6.0%, in line with forecasts. The softer headline figure supported a less aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory to bring inflation to target.

BTC rallied by 4.82% to $25,970 within the first 30 minutes of the report.

Easing Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) contagion risk added to the bullish sentiment. White House and global policymakers gave assurances that they would handle the crisis, delivering late support.

On Tuesday, the NASDAQ Composite Index rallied by 2.14%, with the Dow and S&P 500 seeing gains of 1.06% and 1.65%, respectively. The NASDAQ mini was down 17.5 points this morning.

The Day Ahead

Economic indicators from China will influence market risk sentiment this morning. Fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures for February will draw plenty of interest. Solid numbers would drive demand for BTC and the broader crypto market.

US retail sales and wholesale inflation numbers will influence the afternoon session.

However, the markets should continue to monitor Binance and FTX news and updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.03% to $24,743. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $24,757 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $25,108 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,156 and the Tuesday high of $26,529. A return to $25,000 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and economic data should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,577. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $30,046.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,687 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,639.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $20,170.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 200-day EMA ($22,547). The 50-day and 100-day EMAs converged on the 200-day EMA, signaling a possible BTC breakout.

Bullish crosses of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs through the 200-day EMA would signal a breakout session. However, a fall through S1 ($23,687) would bring S2 ($22,639) and the EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($22,532) would send a bearish signal.