Key Insights:
- On Friday, BTC gained 2.65% to end the day at $30,712
- News of the SEC approving a bitcoin ETF supported a BTC return to $31,000 for the first time since 2022.
- The technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $32,500.
On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.65%. Reversing a 0.32% loss from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $30,712. Significantly, BTC revisited the $31,000 handle for the first time since 2022.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC slip to an early low of $29,835. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,495, BTC surged to a late afternoon high of $31,430. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,435 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $30,951.
In a late pullback, BTC fell through R2 to end the day at $30,712.
SEC Delivers a BTC Boost with the IMF Surprising the Markets
It was a busy Friday session. After two days of Fed Chair Powell testimony, the market focus returned to US economic indicators and the crypto news wires.
US private sector PMI numbers for June provided early afternoon support. The all-important services PMI fell from 54.9 to 54.1 versus a forecasted 54.0. The modest decline eased the immediate fear of a Fed-fueled recession. However, the manufacturing PMI slid from 48.4 to 46.3, which was bearish.
While the stats drew interest, news of the SEC approving the Volatility Shares Trust 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF fueled a mid-afternoon breakout. The 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF seeks two times the excess return of the S&P CME Bitcoin Futures daily Roll Index daily.
Significantly, the SEC approval came after Blackrock (BLK) filed for its own BTC ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, pending SEC approval.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), surprised the crypto markets this week. After a period of anti-crypto rhetoric, the IMF released a report that provided a different view on cryptocurrencies. Focused on the LatAm region, the IMF report noted that,
Bitcoin Price Forecast
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See all Bitcoin forecasts“While a few countries have completely banned crypto assets given their risks, this approach may not be effective in the long run.”
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Saturday session, with no US economic indicators to influence investor sentiment. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto news wires.
After the SEC approval of the first US Bitcoin ETF, the floodgates may open for institutional money to enter the digital asset space with more conviction. The prospect of sticky money entering the digital asset space should support further gains.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,434). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($28,434) would support a move through R1 ($31,483) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($32,254) and $32,500. However, a fall through S1 ($29,888) would bring S2 ($29,064) and the 50-day EMA ($28,434) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.
Resistance & Support Levels
| R1 – $ | 31,483 | S1 – $ | 29,888 |
| R2 – $ | 32,254 | S2 – $ | 29,064 |
| R3 – $ | 33,849 | S3 – $ | 27,469 |
