Can the Bitcoin Bears Pull Off One More Drop Before the Rally to $90K Starts?
Two weeks ago, see here, I used the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) to assess if Bitcoin (BTC) was ready to rally to $90K+ or if it had one more leg down to complete. I found, “If the cryptocurrency does not break below $58128, it will directly set up such a rally.”
Back then, BTC was trading at around $63.2K, and today it is trading at ~$64.2K. Thus, not a lot of progress in two weeks. So what has happened to my EWP point of view? It has essentially remained the same, but the recent rally since then has left the door open for the Bears to sell BTC down to ideally $54-60K before the Bulls can declare victory. Allow me to explain.
Figure 1. Bitcoin daily charts with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
$59555 is now the new Bull/Bear line in the sand.
Figure 1A shows the Bullish option for BTC, which is still a probable possibility. The October 28 low was, in that case, (red) intermediate wave-ii. Shallow, but it did the minimum required retrace, and there were three (green) waves down from the recent all-time high (ATH), and corrections are at a minimum comprised of three waves. But, the rally since then leaves a bit to be desired. Namely, as said in my last update as well as in my daily updates to my premium crypto trading members, “So far, BTC has done three waves back up, labeled in Figure 1B as (grey) minute a, b, c. Thus the current rally can still be a counter-trend rally/bounce.”
What does that mean? The BTC Bears still have a chance to bring the price back down to $54-60K in a final (green) minor c-wave or (red) intermediate wave-ii. See Figure 1B. In EWP terms, the whole price structure since the October 20 (red) wave-i at high at $63544 is then called an “irregular flat.” These are tricky as the “dead cat bounce” surpasses the initial top, wrong-footing everyone in thinking the subsequent rally has started only to see price move in the opposite direction. Luckily, using the EWP, my premium crypto trading members can be prepared for such whipsaws by having appropriate stop-loss levels in place: forewarned is forearmed.
The $54-60 zone would finally satisfy my original target zone for this wave-ii of $53+/-2K. But beggars cannot be choosers, so what does it take to get there? Well, the Bears must sell price below $59555. Why? Because then there can be no Bullish wave-1, 2, i, ii set up (see Figure 1A) anymore because (grey) minute wave-ii can not move below the start of the potential wave-i: $59555. Conversely, if BTC does not break below that level, holds ideally above around $61855 and then breaks back above last week’s $68979 all-time high (ATH), then the Bullish setup is entirely in play, and $90K should be next after a pit stop at around $78K.
From a technical analyses perspective, the MACD and FSTO indicators are on a sell, whereas the Money Flow Indicator was extremely overbought in October. All three, therefore, point to an ongoing correction. But the latter also tells us to expect higher prices soon after because there’s a lot of liquidity pumped into BTC, which will have to find its way through the system. Liquidity drives markets, and when there is a lot of it, higher prices must be anticipated.
Bottom line: A month ago, I correctly anticipated a pullback, but two weeks later, I found that “the retreat fell a bit short of the ideal target zone of $53+/-2K.” Now, with BTC essentially trading at the same price levels as two weeks ago, the Bears still have an option to trigger a drop to ideally $54-60. The trigger level is $59555. If the Bulls can hold this level and then rally BTC back above the ATH, the Bears can hibernate until $90K. However, if BTC drops below $50K, I will share another EWP option with you that my premium crypto trading members already know.