Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Bounces at Key $0.45 Technical Support With Macro Risk In Focus

Key Points

• ADA bounced at a key area of technical resistance but attention is now on broader macro themes. 
• The Fed’s upcoming policy decision could trigger volatility in cryptocurrency markets. 
• Cardano remains the most developed blockchain, according to Santiment. 

Cardano (ADA) Bounces At Key Downtrend Resistance Ahead of Major Macro Risk

ADA, the native token to the Cardano blockchain, slipped as low as the $0.45 level on Tuesday but, as predicted in previous articles, found solid short-term support from a downtrend that had previously been capping the price action between mid-June and mid-July. ADA has since recovered to trade back close to its 21-Day Moving Average near the $0.47 level, with upside in global equity markets in wake of strong earnings from US mega-cap stocks like Microsoft and Alphabet, as well as European luxury giant LVMH, helping support crypto prices.

Cryptocurrency markets are focused on upcoming macro risk in the form of this evening’s US Federal Reserve policy announcement. Today’s 5 Things to Know in Crypto Today article contains a brief preview for those interested in how it might impact crypto. With ADA having responded well technically to support to the downside and, assuming all goes well on the macro front (a big assumption!), ADA has a shot at rallying back towards recent highs in the $0.55 area.

Cardano Still the Most Developed Blockchain, According to Santiment Analysis

Cardano remains the most developed asset in the crypto space, crypto analytics firm said in a tweet on Tuesday, referring to its “analysis of code pushes, issues interactions and more”, where “routine updates from teams are excluded to ensure only relevant development is included”.

🧑‍💻 #Cardano reigns as the most developed asset in #crypto, according to our analysis of code pushes, issue interactions, and more. Routine updates from teams are excluded to ensure only relevant development is included. More here: https://t.co/vWQCE4r4pvhttps://t.co/5f6GNDp8dM pic.twitter.com/uDVb7pMs23

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 26, 2022

Cardano “continues to see the most frequent notable GitHub activity”, Santiment said in a separate earlier tweet. The next most developed blockchains are Flow, Polkadot & its canary network Kusama and Ethereum.

Capital Flows Returns to Crypto, Including Cardano

According to CoinShare’s latest weekly digital asset fund flow report released on Monday, digital asset investment products saw an inflow of $27 million last week. The week prior, digital assets saw $343 million in inflows, the largest in any given week since November 2021, back when most major coins were at or close to record highs.

Cardano-focused investment products saw an inflow of $1.4 million last week, lifting year-to-date inflows to around $13.3 million. Year-to-date inflows into the entire digital asset space currently start at around $415 million, with the vast majority of this coming this month. Analysts said the recent acceleration of inflows into the digital asset space represents increased institutional demand. So long as the macro backdrop doesn’t worsen too substantially in the months ahead, this could be a big tailwind for crypto.

BNB Chain Whales Boost Cardano Holdings

A tokenized version of Cardano is now a top 10 holding amongst the 2,000 largest whales on the BNB Chain (formerly known as the Binance Smart Chain), whale tracking and blockchain analytics website WhaleStats said in a tweet on Monday. Holders of the tokenized version of Cardano essentially hold a token that guarantees they can redeem it for an actual ADA token on Cardano’s blockchain.

JUST IN: $ADA @CardanoStiftung now on top 10 by trading volume among 2000 biggest #BSC whales in the last 24hrs 🐳

Peep the top 100 whales here: https://t.co/gGAxYJttsD

(and hodl $BBW to see data for the top 2000!)#ADA #whalestats #babywhale #BBW pic.twitter.com/SZqgZ4aoM5

— WhaleStats – the top 1000 BSC richlist (@WhaleStatsBSC) July 24, 2022

Analysts said that the increased allocation towards Cardano amongst BNB Chain whales reflects investors placing bullish bets on Cardano ahead of its Vasil hard fork upgrade that is scheduled to take place prior to the end of the month, or soon thereafter.

Input Output Global (formerly Input Output Hong Kong), Cardano’s creator, released a progress update on Monday. The long and short of it pretty much is that, after performing the Vasil hard fork on Cardano’s testnet at the start of July, developers in the node, ledger and consensus teams are still at work.

No date was given when the hard fork on Cardano’s mainnet will officially go ahead, but most still expect it to go ahead before the end of this month. One Cardano analyst and builder did, however, share his thoughts on why he expected another delay last week, as well as why he doesn’t think a delay really matters.

Recall that the Vasil hard fork was initially scheduled to go ahead in late-June, but was delayed, resulting in downside in ADA’s price at the time. Thus, if it does get announced this week that the upgrade is being delayed again, that could deliver some short-term pain to ADA.

Vasil Hard Fork to Boost ADA? CoinMarketCap Users Seem to Think so

A successful upgrade has been touted as a big potential bullish driver for ADA in the months ahead. And users of the popular cryptocurrency intel website CoinMarketCap seem bullish. According to the website’s “Price Estimate” feature that allows users to submit their views on where a cryptocurrency will be trading at some specified time in the future, Cardano is seen rallying between now and the end of August.

Out of 14,222 votes cast, the average forecast is for ADA to reach $0.73 per token, over 55% higher than current levels, by the end of August. The median forecast was for a rise to $0.6488, a near 38% gain from current levels. CoinMarketCap users then think Cardano will consolidate in September, with the average estimate for its price to fall back to $0.7070 and the median estimate for it to fall back to $0.6270.