Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Bulls Eye $0.55 Retest As Focus Turns to US GDP

Key Points

• Cardano is a little lower amid profit-taking on Thursday and trading near $0.50, after big post-Fed gains on Wednesday.
• Traders are braced for US GDP data and, all going well on the macro front, ADA could retest $0.55 soon.
• Despite the major upcoming Vasil hard fork upgrade, ADA trading volumes and social media hype recently hit six-month lows.

ADA, the native token to the Cardano blockchain, was last trading with losses of close to 2.5% on Thursday, amid some profit-taking after the cryptocurrency posted an outsized 9.0% gain on Wednesday. Cryptocurrencies were at the time boosted by a “dovish” 75 bps rate hike from the Fed.

ADA surged above its 21 and 50-Day Moving Averages in the $0.473 and $0.481 areas on Wednesday and was last trading just below the $0.50 level, having nearly hit $0.52 in earlier Thursday trade. Crypto markets are currently bracing for the release of Q2 US GDP figures later in the day that will confirm whether or not the US economy has been in a technical recession in the first half of 2022.

Analysts think that weaker data is likely to be bullish for risk assets like stocks and crypto if it results in markets paring Fed tightening bets. Fed tightening in 2022 amid persistently high US (and global) inflationary pressures has been a key headwind for crypto this year.

ADA Bulls Eye a Retest of $0.55?

Cardano bulls interpreted the fact that ADA found such strong support earlier this week at a downtrend that had been capping the price action from mid-June to mid-July as a bullish sign. The cryptocurrency now appears to have formed a bullish flag structure, which Cardano bulls will be hoping might preceded a rally back to monthly highs in the $0.55 area.

All going well on the macro front and assuming risk appetite remains on an improving trend in the coming sessions (a big assumption that shouldn’t be taken for granted), a break above $0.55 is possible. Technicians think this would open the door to a run higher towards the late-May highs in the $0.69 area.

Cardano Twitter Hype/Trading Volumes Hit Six Month Lows Despite Upcoming Vasil Upgrade

According to developers, despite its upcoming Vasil hard fork upgrade that will mark the blockchain’s biggest improvement since it added smart-contract functionality back in 2021, Cardano’s popularity on Twitter recently hit a six-month low. That according to crypto data provider The TIE, which posted a chart on Twitter that also showed trading volumes to have recently fallen to a six-month low.

Twitter and Trading Volumes for $ADA are at 6 Month lows.

Despite this lull in attention, the 8th biggest Digital Asset is scheduled to undergo the Vasil Hardfork at the end of July, which should greatly improve dApp and Smart Contract experience on Cardano. pic.twitter.com/8gGuF1gxZQ

— The TIE (@TheTIEIO) July 27, 2022

Regarding the upgrade, Input Output Global (formerly Input Output Hong Kong), Cardano’s creator, released a progress update on Monday. The long and short of it was pretty much that, after performing the Vasil hard fork on Cardano’s testnet at the start of July, developers in the node, ledger and consensus teams are still at work.

No date was given when the hard fork on Cardano’s mainnet will officially go ahead, but most still expect it to go ahead before the end of this month. One Cardano analyst and builder did, however, share his thoughts on why he expected another delay last week, as well as why he doesn’t think a delay really matters.

Recall that the Vasil hard fork was initially scheduled to go ahead in late-June, but was delayed, resulting in downside in ADA’s price at the time. Thus, if it does get announced this week that the upgrade is being delayed again, that could deliver some short-term pain to ADA.

Analysts think a successful upgrade could be a big potential bullish driver for ADA in the months ahead. This seems to be the view of users of the popular cryptocurrency intel website CoinMarketCap. According to the website’s “Price Estimate” feature that allows users to submit their views on where a cryptocurrency will be trading at some specified time in the future, Cardano is seen rallying between now and the end of August.

Out of 14,222 votes cast, the average forecast is for ADA to reach $0.73 per token, over 55% higher than current levels, by the end of August. The median forecast was for a rise to $0.6488, a near 38% gain from current levels.

In a separate survey of ADA price forecasts conducted by finder.com earlier this month, the median expectation of 53 fintech experts was for ADA to end the year around $0.60. Experts responding to finder.com’s survey were split over how the upcoming Vasil hardfork will impact Cardano. 20% said it would positively impact ADA’s price, 18% said it would have an adverse effect, while 50% said it would increase the functionality of the Cardano blockchain.

ADA Owners HODLing Longer Versus Other Major Cryptos, According to Coinbase

According to Coinbase data, ADA has a median hold time of 125 days, higher than Ethereum’s typical hold time of 105 days and Solana’s hold time of 100 days. Coinbase says that a longer hold time “signals an accumulation trend”, while a shorter hold time points to an “increased movement of tokens”. Analysts noted that Coinbase’s introduction ADA staking, which offers holders a 3.75% APY on their tokens, has likely lifted HODL time on the platform.